Jeff GilchristFeb 11, 2023

If you feel sick, is it likely to be a new COVID variant or something else?

A couple of months ago if you got sick there was a good chance it could have been RSV or Flu that was making you feel ill, or possibly the Omicron BQ.1.1 variant which was rising quickly. 🧵 1/

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Thread by jeffgilchrist: If you feel sick, is it likely to be a new COVID v... - PingThread

If you feel sick, is it likely to be a new COVID variant or something else? A couple of months ago if you got sick there was a good chance it could have been RSV or Flu that was making you feel ill, or possibly the Omicron BQ.1.1 variant which was rising quickly. 🧵1/

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Show threadJeff GilchristFeb 11, 2023
Now, RSV is at much lower levels and Flu A is no longer being detected from wastewater samples in Ottawa so it is much less likely you can blame your sniffles, congestion, or fever on those two viruses. 2/
Show threadJeff GilchristFeb 11, 2023
There is a virus that is increasing fast in Ontario now, the new XBB.1.5 "Kraken" COVID variant. It has now overtaken BQ.1.1 "Cerberus" to become the variant with the highest frequency of sequenced genomes from PCR testing at more than 27% now. Graph ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D ) created by @mike_honey_ 3/
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Show threadJeff GilchristFeb 11, 2023
Throughout the pandemic Dr. Graber has observed when an emerging variant reaches 50% of the wastewater signal, it is followed by a rapid increase signalling the beginning of a new wave which we may be starting to see now with XBB.1.5 ( https://twitter.com/rnaguru/status/1623100538924503040 ). 4/
Tyson Graber on Twitter

“#Ottawa VOC update to 26JAN: After some tweaking, our K444.2 and L452.3 assays that pick up XBB* markers are in agreement with each other and show a growth in the last couple of weeks of Jan. There has been an uptick in SARS-CoV-2 wastewater signal in the first week of FEB...”

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Show threadJeff GilchristFeb 11, 2023
Looking at the wastewater COVID signal over time, the baseline lows keep getting higher and higher so ever since Omicron BA.1 hit a year ago, we have never gone back to low levels of COVID community transmission and now those minimum transmission levels keep getting higher. 5/
Show threadCharity Feb
@jeffgilchrist Oh my. Isn't this disturbing. #FloMaskingForever
Feb 12, 2023 at 4:49pmWeb