@dimillian The bull case for Mastodon is that enough people find it valuable, for the niches/interests they follow, to keep checking Mas multiple times per day/week. The probability of it reaching critical mass is approaching zero.
@dimillian if people find mastodon confusing I don’t know how they, currently, will figure out Nostr. I tried Damus briefly and the whole public key/private key thing may turn off a lot of people.