"I guess we should retire the expression "avoid it like the plague" given how little effort people put into avoiding an actual plague."

#CovidIsNotOver #WearAMask 🥴​

@gemelliz You might want to look into the infection fatality rate for the black death versus COVID, particularly following COVID vaccination and boost.

The black death killed about a third of the people in Europe. COVID-19 has killed a bit less than 0.3% of the people in the US, and most of those were unvaccinated.

COVID-19 is a terrible disease and a pandemic. It is not the plague.

@merz @gemelliz Avoid it like thinking about long co vid

@gerdcastan @gemelliz I don't want to get COVID so I do mask in most public settings, but I'm fully vaccinated and boosted, which greatly reduces the risk of long COVID.

Again, COVID is bad but we needn't pretend that with current vaccines and therapeutics it's bubonic plague or AIDS.

@merz @gemelliz being vaccinated reduces the likelyhood of long covid per infection by 15% to 50%, depending on which study you cite.
Still 10-20% chance of lc for each infection.
And most behave in a way that make several infection per year likely.

@gerdcastan @gemelliz Nope. There is a strong dose-response relationship for vaccination and boost and the protective effect of vaccination + boost against long COVID — once you’ve hd acut COVID — is closer to 3X.

Additionally, vaccination and boost substantially decrease odds of getting acute COVID in the first place, meaning that overall protection against long COVID is substantially better than 3x.

@gerdcastan @gemelliz Also your claim of “several infections per year” being “likely” is nonsense.

@merz @gemelliz the only(*) reason why waves come down is that people who like infections got it.

How many waves do we have per year?

(*) and German summer vacation, ie behaviour change