Chris TrottierThis is the year that the Fediverse overtakes the Metaverse.
That's right.
According to GlobalData, 2023 is going to be a "Metaverse winter" and a "Fediverse spring".
It's stunning how VCs and Big Social simply didn't see the Fediverse coming.
They put so much money into VR and crypto -- all pumping this tech up as the "next big thing".
Little did they know that web standards, open protocols, and decentralization would make a breakthrough -- yet again.
Many people are saying, "Nobody could have predicted the growth of the Fediverse."
Actually, many people predicted the growth of the Fediverse -- including me.
It's just that the people who predicted growth weren't VCs and Press.
Another reason for the "Metaverse winter" and "Fediverse spring":
Cost.
Starting up a Fediverse service is vastly less expensive than starting up a Metaverse service.
Remember, when the Metaverse gained popularity, companies were flush with cash amidst ongoing lockdowns.
But conditions change.
Now companies are preparing for an oncoming recession. And fewer people are staying home.
Let's also consider the physical realities of Metaverse vs. Fediverse.
Metaverse requires hardware that does not yet have mass adoption. You need a VR headset or AR glasses -- something most people don't readily have available.
Those who do have that hardware are constrained by limitations such as battery power.
In contrast, the Fediverse works on desktops, laptops, smartphones -- even a Raspberry Pi.
Hardware is no bottleneck for the Fediverse.
Meta's push into the Metaverse is Exhibit "A" for corporate sunk cost fallacy.
They continue to invest in it because they've already sunk billions of dollars into it.
To stop investing in the Metaverse is to acknowledge failure.
This company is so invested, they even changed their name.
What's going on with "Metaverse" is a textbook Kansas city shuffle.
Big Social recognized that there was a con.
They believed they were too smart to fall for the con -- thus invested in it.
But while they were looking right, something else happened to the left -- outside their field of vision.
Specifically, their so-called "users" aren't joining the Metaverse. They're going somewhere else.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=kansas%20city%20shuffle
Urban Dictionary: kansas city shuffle
A type of con which depends on the mark realizing they're being conned, but incorrectly guessing how it's being done. When they try to foil the fake con they think they've uncovered, they fall into the real con. This con is most effective against marks who are "too smart for their own good", and will try to beat the conman at his own game instead of backing off when they discover he's trying to con them. Named after the song by J Ralph. There are two Kansas Cities, and while one is in Kansas, the larger, more well-known one is actually just across the river in Missouri. Somebody unfamiliar with the region might go to the smaller one when they really wanted to go to the larger one, because they made the assumption that "Kansas City is obviously in Kansas". The song uses this confusion as an analogy for the way a mark thinks when they're being conned by a Kansas City Shuffle-type con.
toxtethogrady@atomicpoet What's going on with the Metaverse is I'm not the least bit interested in virtual reality. And I'm not alone in that thought. I originally signed on to Facebook because it was a social gathering place where I had friends I knew and found other friends I could chat with. What I was unable to see is that it was a propaganda vector designed to direct us to Meta's advertisers (or to various bad actors with their own agendas). Hearing that they coddled Trump and extremist viewpoints because it was good for business or brought in advertising revenue was unsettling but inevitable. Experiencing their censorious protection of their brand was a breaking point. But I have no use for alternate reality; I leave that for Kellyanne Conway...