Another stupid hot take about the Fediverse. This time courtesy of Megan McArdle from the Washington Post.

Apparently, Mastodon is doomed because it solves problems most users don't care about.

Just like Linux is a failure—because only hobbyists and IT professionals use it.

Except—unknown to Megan—Linux is a huge success which runs on everything (including your router).

Also Megan seems unaware that the *actual* problem with social media really is centralization.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/17/twitter-mastodon-replacement-social-media/

Twitter might be replaced, but not by Mastodon or other imitators

Twitter's successor will probably be something not much like Twitter at all.

The Washington Post
@atomicpoet “Linux is a failure” *posted to a site hosted on Linux servers, then consumed on phones running Linux by connecting over network gear running linux, while drinking coffee brewed by a coffee pot also running Linux*

@mgaruccio @atomicpoet The author did mention Android so she's not completely unaware. Her point is more about Linux not making that much headway on desktop PCs which is at least true. I think it's pretty difficult to try to say it can't work out for Mastodon because it didn't work in that case.

I do think the average person has not shown all that much concern for interoperability or openness when choosing which tools to use on their computer historically.

@73ms @atomicpoet except that’s also not true. About as many chromebooks shipped as macs last year, and no1 is saying macOS is “limited to a few hobbyists”.

Average users don’t care about openness in and of itself. But they do care about better moderation, choice of apps, and whatever the next awesome thing to ship is, which are enabled by the openness. Just like Chromebook’s and raspberry pi’s are enabled by Linux’s openness.

@mgaruccio @atomicpoet You can count chromebooks if you like, sure. I don't think it fundamentally changes the picture, is covered by what she said about Android and is not really a success story when it comes to user freedom from megacorporations.

@73ms @mgaruccio In other words, Linux on the desktop is a big success. It's a success on servers, desktops, mobile—everywhere. In fact, it's the most successful OS of all time.

You can say it doesn't save users from megacorporations, but that's not its mission.

Not once in the GPL does it say, "no megacorporations allowed".

@atomicpoet @mgaruccio Well, like I said counting Chromebooks doesn't fundamentally change the picture. They may be somewhat successful but they certainly have not taken over the market.

A more important point is that just like I would not consider a popular Mastodon instance that does not federate and is run by Google to be a win for the fediverse, I don't really consider Android or Chromebooks to be that for Linux either. Chromebooks pretty much killed the cheap Linux laptop.

@73ms @mgaruccio Chromebooks never killed anything.

Before they came out, most people installed Linux themselves using a CD or USB stick. Which is what people still do.

If you want a pre-installed Linux, you can get it from Dell, Lenovo, or System76.

Again, Linux was never about "no megacorporations".

You're literally making that up.

@atomicpoet @mgaruccio Anecdotal, but back when Chromebooks were not really a thing I was able to buy low-end laptops with some variety (usually Ubuntu) of a Linux distro preinstalled and supported from a variety of vendors like HP, Dell, Acer. Their disappearance from the market seems to have coincided with Chromebooks appearing.

It seemed similar to how Linux found a footing on netbooks at first but then Microsoft worked to make Windows the only option.

@73ms @mgaruccio Those "low-end laptops" were probably netbooks—because that's the only devices I was ever able to get Linux pre-installed.

I would say that it wasn't just Chromebooks that killed them but also cheap tablets.

By the way, you can still buy cheap devices with Linux pre-installed. Look up Pinebook or Pinetab.