I've been thinking about degrees of risk lately. I wish more people did:
1st degree: My risk. “I feel safe going into crowds maskless because I don't think I'll get #COVID19 or it will just be mild.”
2nd degree: My risk to people I know. “I feel safe going into crowds maskless and then seeing people I love because the chance I get them sick is slim.”
3rd degree: Our risk to each other. “I feel safe being part of the crowd ignoring COVID risks because I think the risks to everyone are mild or moderate.”
This thought came to mind after speaking to a peer this week. She's been dismissive of COVID risks, going out to crowded nightclubs regularly. When I met some work friends in an empty restaurant during a COVID lull before the holidays, she spoke of how she'd twice been in crowded pubs that past week and how fun it was to sing with everyone.
My peer only saw the first- and second-degree risks, but her part in the third-degree risk was lost on her. (Her parents are suffering because people behave as she does, and for all she knows, other people's parents are suffering because of her risky decisions.)
My social feeds are full of people doing the same. They don't care or think the first-degree risks are great, so they feel safe in crowded bars, restaurants, conferences, and events.
But I wonder how many partying like it's 2019 are conscious of second-degree risks--do they see elderly parents a day or two after a crowded event, not realizing they could be asymptomatic and infectious? Do they go out to crowded places on consecutive days, possibly spreading to others a pandemic virus that remains a top cause of death and is causing an historic shortening of lifespans?
If we were a bit more conscious about how our decisions affect the people we love, we'd avoid being the millionth story like this: “Like many, I thought the pandemic was over – until I infected half my family on Thanksgiving. I was to blame for giving #COVID19 to my elderly, high-risk, medically sensitive dad. Soon after, my wife and son tested positive. Now I was responsible for three people I love contracting the virus.”
COVID is not over. It is not yet endemic. We can't simply “live with COVID” and pretend our risks are the same as in 2019. Our economy will be harmed, healthcare workers will be overburdened, and we'll impact the quality of life and lifespan of billions.
You don't need to isolate constantly. But if you're the type who won't go out when there's a blizzard or monitor weather to see if you'll need an umbrella, then stay home or #WearAMask when transmission levels are high. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk
@augieray How I wish this was so.
"low transmission" was only happening because people were staying home, masking, etc. One you decide you can do more because transmission is low, you're removing a constraint. Transmission increases.
Low transmission is an indication that countermeasures are working. It's a time to be even more careful, because if we should happen keep Rₜ solidly negative for a couple months we could get case numbers low enough to actually prevent transmission.
Augie Ray
Graydon