Steven StrogatzDec 24, 2022
Why do so many people get Monty Hall problem (also known the three doors problem) wrong? Steven Tijms explores both the math and the psychology in this illuminating article: https://chance.amstat.org/2022/11/monty-hall
Monty Hall and the ‘Leibniz Illusion’ | CHANCE

Steven Tijms Seeing Is Believing Throughout the history of mathematics, quite a few mathematical problems have achieved celebrity status outside the circle of mathematicians. Famous problems such as squaring the circle or proving Fermat’s last theorem have intrigued thousands of people over the centuries. But almost no mathematical problem has been as fiercely and widely […]

Show threadAndrew Jon ThomsonDec 25, 2022
@stevenstrogatz I read the whole thing and I still don’t understand why the two options are not equally possible. The article is primarily concerned with why people have this illusion but it did not sufficiently explain to my dense brain why the correct solution is correct. Now I need to find an article explaining why.
Show threadAngus Mackenzie

@HelloAndrew @stevenstrogatz Two thirds of the time on your first choice, you pick a goat. You are always shown a goat - two thirds of the time it is the other goat.

One time in three the host has a choice of two goats and you are about to move away from the car. The other two thirds, you are moving from one of the goats to the car, so overall you should change.

Jan 8, 2023 at 7:13pmWeb
Show threadAndrew Jon ThomsonJan 8, 2023
@anxiousmac @stevenstrogatz I feel like the more I think about this the stupider I get