Tom WilliamsJan 7, 2023
Casey Briggs
Tfw when governments commission Covid forecasts every week but keep them secret https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-07/covid-data-government-secrecy/101827548
Australian governments have kept much of their COVID research and modelling secret. Why?

COVID heralded a great era of cooperation, with researchers collaborating across institutions and borders. That work couldn't have been done if all the research was being locked up by governments — but in Australia, they're doing just that, writes Casey Briggs.

ABC News
Jan 7, 2023 at 2:15amWeb
Show threadPete@korogoroJan 7, 2023
@caseybriggs why?
Show threadsabikJan 7, 2023

@Peteatkorogoro
@caseybriggs
Maybe if people knew what's going on, we'd be demanding more effective mitigations?

Perhaps I'm cynical, but then Dom has described parts of his own pandemic response as "a massive fake" / "Health completely disagreed with this" / "no basis in science at all", so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Show threadEsther Lim Jan 7, 2023

@caseybriggs because when WA health released their modelling it was laughably conservative.

They forecast 129 covid deaths over 180 days (post border opening in Mar 2022) and we ended up with at least 4x that number.

Show threadsabikJan 7, 2023
@estherlimtf
@caseybriggs
To be fair, half an order of magnitude off sounds like a pretty good estimate under the circumstances; and it's not the immediate deaths that are the major concern anyway