Even though they're technically not contradictory, I'm not sure how to reconcile the following two things:

1. Nearly every time an outsider says that people are doing X stupidly and could do way better, they're wrong for boring reasons that are obvious to any insider.

2. It seems fairly easy* to find huge wins as an outsider.

At some level, maybe this is like https://danluu.com/p95-skill/, where the median player in an objective-based game regularly loses because they don't touch the objective, but

95%-ile isn't that good

@danluu Without snark, I think it’s easy if you have good ideas, and hard if you don’t.

Structurally, good ideas are disproportionately clustered in places people aren’t looking or where there’s an obstacle to implementation.