Dan LuuJan 6, 2023

Even though they're technically not contradictory, I'm not sure how to reconcile the following two things:

1. Nearly every time an outsider says that people are doing X stupidly and could do way better, they're wrong for boring reasons that are obvious to any insider.

2. It seems fairly easy* to find huge wins as an outsider.

At some level, maybe this is like https://danluu.com/p95-skill/, where the median player in an objective-based game regularly loses because they don't touch the objective, but

95%-ile isn't that good

Show threadOpenDNA⚙️Jan 6, 2023

@danluu The slip, I suspect, is outsiders expecting that a specialty is exactly like something they know well, instead of marginally related at best.

I spent time in the trucking industry, as a driver and a manager. Because any accidents or moving violations are effectively disqualifying, every commercial truck driver is in the top 95% of drivers. What distinguishes productivity among drivers isn't skill at driving - or hours spent (because HOS) - but geography and market niche.

Show threadOpenDNA⚙️

@danluu The belief that driving a truck long distance is just like commuting in a car, but longer, leads outsiders to come up with obvious solutions which insiders understand are silly.

"AI electric trucks will replace diesel and drivers within 10 years" is one of my favorites, because it presumes that self-driving vehicles or electric vehickes are the Hard Problem, so self-driving cars means self-driving trucks. To outsiders, the replacement is obvious.

Jan 6, 2023 at 12:01pmWeb
Show threadOpenDNA⚙️Jan 6, 2023

@danluu To insiders, there are a host of other, greater, barriers which are obvious. They range from the capital cost to replace equipment decades ahead of schedule to the mechanical challenges of winter (and summer) weather across America to the geographical proximity of service techs.

i.e. I had a driver make the "stupid" mistake of turning off the engine to sleep, causing the engine to freeze. How will computers and batteries perform at <10°C without diesel's "waste" heat?