♦️ ereliuer eteer ♦️Ava and Eve are identical twins, but Ava tells the truth with a probability of 0.75, and Eve tells the truth with a probability of 0.25 (independently of each other). Suppose, I meet them in the street and ask one of them: “Are you Ava or Eve?” and she responds “I'm Ava.” Then I ask the other girl: “Did she tell the truth?” and she responds “Yes.” What are the chances that both girls told the truth this time?
cube!@ereliuer_eteer even though the odds of receiving a single true answer from both (with independent Qs) in one go is 3/16, we already know they were either both telling the truth or both lying (which happens to also have a 3/16 chance). our actual question is the *chance that we picked ava first,* which is a simple 1/2 chance.