♦️ ereliuer eteer ♦️Ava and Eve are identical twins, but Ava tells the truth with a probability of 0.75, and Eve tells the truth with a probability of 0.25 (independently of each other). Suppose, I meet them in the street and ask one of them: “Are you Ava or Eve?” and she responds “I'm Ava.” Then I ask the other girl: “Did she tell the truth?” and she responds “Yes.” What are the chances that both girls told the truth this time?
Ian Ramjohn@ereliuer_eteer If Ava told the truth, then Eve is telling the truth. So only the p. that Ava is telling the truth matters. So 0.75
@iramjohn But you don't know who of them is the real Ava.