Jeff FeckeJan 2, 2023
My money has been on McCarthy pulling together enough votes to win the gavel, but as of right now I'm leaning towards thinking that he isn't going to be able to pull it off. And if he doesn't have the votes on the first ballot, I don't think he ever gets there.
Show threadJeff FeckeJan 2, 2023
The best move for McCarthy would be to change rules to allow a plurality to carry the day; that's happened before. But to do that he still needs a majority to change the rules; that means he'd either need to get the extremists to back him on the procedural vote (no chance) or the Democrats (even less chance).
Show threadJeff Fecke
So if McCarthy doesn't get the votes? Well, the most likely outcome is what happened last time McCarthy tried to become speaker -- the GOP selects a compromise candidate. But there's a non-zero chance that you end up with some sort of centrist bloc organized through the problem solvers caucus -- and if so, I'm 100% for Democrats supporting it.
Jan 2, 2023 at 7:28pmWeb
Show threadJeff FeckeJan 2, 2023
No matter what, if McCarthy doesn't have the votes on the first ballot, whatever follows is a Republican caucus that is utterly fractured from the moment it takes the House. This is going to be a disaster. Pop your popcorn.
Show threadkitJan 2, 2023
@jkfecke my dark horse has always been house speaker Nancy Pelosi