The fastest accurate trend indicator is the running total of new hospital cases per 7 days. In 2020 this was rising very fast by now, in 2021 it was rising at a much more modest pace but this year its actually started to fall in the last days. Some or all of that mill be a 'fewer admissions at xmas' effect but this does still suggest we are near the wave peak and that we may not hit 1,000 Covid in hospital in early January after all /3

Zooming out a bit to when I started collecting data IF we are near the 7 day running total of new hospital cases peak than this will be the lowest of the 4 post vaccine waves despite also being a period of huge indoor social contact. So at least by this measure a further indication the pandemic is approaching an end with flu +RSV causing as much harm /4

I finally caught it myself in early December and isolated until Xmas eve when I got my first negative antigen on the 10th day after symptom onset. I'd not much in the way of symptoms apart from fatigue at the time and low energy but improving fast currently. But I really can't say I'm looking forward to repeating the experience every year to few months even if I dodge Long Covid each time /5

@AndrewFlood It was probably a mistake only to offer second boosters to the over 50s. I think the latest boosters are better for new variants and should have been offered to everybody.

@stephenboyd there’s a cost v benefit analysis - it’s not clear that for most people under 50 a 4th or more booster does much more than offer a two month reduced infection chance window but a roll out program reduces other health resources including staff. And the bivalents seem to have made no significant difference against the variants they actually end up against when compared to original