Andrew FloodDec 28, 2022
There are 737 #Covid19 Ireland hospital cases today which is higher than both the 'meaningful Xmas' Dec 28 2020 when there were less than half that at 360 and last years Omicron surge when there were 521. However I think the situation is not as alarming as that simple comparison suggests & we may even be near wave peak /1
Show threadAndrew FloodDec 28, 2022

The major difference is that in the 'manful xmas' of December 2020 row numbers in hospital shot up massively (164%) over the xmas period. In Dec 2021 (116%) and now (118%) that increase is much smaller suggesting the peak will be well below that 2100 of 2020/21

2020 - 360 NHC Dec 28 is 164% of 220 NHC on Dec 20

2021 - 521 NHC Dec 28 is 116% of 467 Dec 20

2022 - 737 NHC Dec28 is 118% of 624 Dec20 /2

Show threadAndrew FloodDec 28, 2022
The fastest accurate trend indicator is the running total of new hospital cases per 7 days. In 2020 this was rising very fast by now, in 2021 it was rising at a much more modest pace but this year its actually started to fall in the last days. Some or all of that mill be a 'fewer admissions at xmas' effect but this does still suggest we are near the wave peak and that we may not hit 1,000 Covid in hospital in early January after all /3
Show threadAndrew FloodDec 28, 2022
Zooming out a bit to when I started collecting data IF we are near the 7 day running total of new hospital cases peak than this will be the lowest of the 4 post vaccine waves despite also being a period of huge indoor social contact. So at least by this measure a further indication the pandemic is approaching an end with flu +RSV causing as much harm /4
Show threadAndrew FloodDec 28, 2022
I finally caught it myself in early December and isolated until Xmas eve when I got my first negative antigen on the 10th day after symptom onset. I'd not much in the way of symptoms apart from fatigue at the time and low energy but improving fast currently. But I really can't say I'm looking forward to repeating the experience every year to few months even if I dodge Long Covid each time /5
Show threadJustin MasonDec 28, 2022
@AndrewFlood there is also the substantial risk that each COVID infection may cause unseen damage, eg increase in heart disease. This seems to be a possibility though unproven yet
Show threadMark Dennehy
@jmason @AndrewFlood Haven't we already seen studies on this showing a statistically significant increase in vascular damage with subsequent infections?
Dec 28, 2022 at 1:25pmWeb
Show threadJustin MasonDec 28, 2022
@markdennehy @AndrewFlood yeah, but as I understand it, it's still early days to know what the long term damage will be
Show threadAndrew FloodDec 28, 2022
@markdennehy @jmason yes I think the question is one of magnitude rather than do some people end up with some damage. And to what extent vaccination reduces the risk, then to what extent it reduces per infection with each subsequent infection.