@markvonwahlde @Pwnallthethings I definitely agree with the analogy, but the thing I wonder is if his lieutenants are invested enough in his mission that they’d carry it on in the event of his demise? Sure, he’s got some oligarch buddies who stand to lose a lot if he’s removed from power, but these guys didn’t get to where they are by putting all of their eggs in one basket.
It seems to me that much of what Putin’s doing is an ego play. Sure, you could make the argument that there are economic benefits to regaining control over the Ukraine, but I think the financial and human costs (I know, Putin only cares about the former) have been so great that it’s long past the point of diminishing return. So, with that in mind, is there anybody else who’d have anything to gain by carrying the torch?
Seems to me that the best move for (the rest of) Russia right now is to depose (by whatever definition) Putin, and have the next person pull Russia out of Ukraine. That way, nobody loses face (except for Putin, who’d now be irrelevant). They’ve gotta know that they’re in a conflict that they can’t win, and that the response from the international community will keep squeezing them tighter and tighter. As for China, Russia’s so oversubscribed militarily and economically that there’s not much that they can offer China as far as a “golden billion” deal is concerned. About the only thing they have at this point, is oil. But even that’s an investment of diminishing return, given the fact that the world has more or less absorbed the gap left by not buying Russian oil, not to mention the fact that oil is going to become more of a niche power source as alternative power sources become more efficient and pervasive.
In this armchair-king-of-the-world’s opinion, Russia doesn’t have much in the way of options.