Scott ShapiroDoes Tesla stock ever go up?
Cat Food Casserole@scottjshapiro
When Musk steps down?
Peter Jakobs ⛵@scottjshapiro my prediction: the company will go down until it's bought by another large manufacturer, taking Musk out of the equation.
NASA is, I assume, already making plans to either separate themselves from SpaceX (which will be very difficult) or to stipulate a change of ownership for SpaceX because they cannot be reliant on an erratic actor.
NASA is, I assume, already making plans to either separate themselves from SpaceX (which will be very difficult) or to stipulate a change of ownership for SpaceX because they cannot be reliant on an erratic actor.
Carsten Werner@scottjshapiro Tesla is completely overvalued. They sell much less than major competitors. At the same time, Tesla is said to be worth three or four times as much. That can't work in the long run. We are probably seeing the necessary correction right now.
Trombone Joe Jackson@cawer @scottjshapiro overvalued? What are you basing that off of? Genuinely curious.
Current p/e is 31 versus average p/e in the ev sector in the low hundreds.
@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro When I look at the competitors: Mercedes has a p/e of 5, Volkswagen a p/e of 3. Those are by far more attractive investments for investors.
@scottjshapiro I mean at some point it has to, no? Current forward P/E is 31 and it’s the only profitable stock in the sector.
At some point the emotion & downward short pressure gives way to economic reality.
T L Holaday@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro Is it your view that Tesla is the best managed company in the sector?
@tlholaday @scottjshapiro I think the CEO sucks, but he’s been iced out for the past year and a half and has very little involvement in D2D ops.
The rest of the management team has a decent pedigree; bottom line is it’s tough to argue with ongoing revenue growth esp compared with comps like WKHS, RIVN, NKLA, RIDE, etc. at some point that upward pressure has to stop the short pressure; I would look at a future earnings announcement.
@tlholaday @scottjshapiro what do you think?
@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro In my view, Tesla is not the best-managed company in the sector. I am curious about your view on its management because you said it was the only profitable company in the sector.
@tlholaday @scottjshapiro And that's a fact - all of the other domestic EV companies I mentioned are operating at losses. Lordstown was hoping to get a big USPS contract a couple years ago but that fell through.
Regarding the management, again I think the results speak for themselves. EPS was $0.21 in 2020, $1.63 in 2021 and the current trailing 12-month EPS is $3.24.
What do you think Tesla management should be doing differently that other EV manufacturers are doing?
@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro I know that the Tesla has nothing to sell me or any of my neighbors except rental cars, ride service, and multi-device 15v chargers.
@tlholaday @scottjshapiro ok, but you said you don’t think they have the best management team in the sector.
What EV manufacturer do you think has better management, and what have they instituted that Tesla should emulate?
Anybody can make generalizations.
@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro I think Tesla’s sector is “automotive vehicle design, manufacture, sales, finance, and servicing” not “domestic EV,” so I want to look at the specific companies you listed. I may discover that the management of all of those companies have also been sued in Delaware for paying a single employee $50B when their quarterly revenue is $3.3B and net property, plant, and equipment is $21.9B, and I simply haven’t heard about it.
@tlholaday @scottjshapiro oh, then we simply disagree.
From an investing standpoint, dedicated EV startups are a unique class that are completely separate from legacy carmakers. Nobody expects Toyota or GM to double their earnings every year. EVs are growth stocks, regular carmakers are large caps. Totally different.
Tesla is the only profitable company in the EV sector.
@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro From an investing standpoint, have any of the companies you include in your USA Domestic EV sector delivered as much value to short-sellers this year as Tesla?
@tlholaday @scottjshapiro and yes, all companies are sued.
And being sued isn’t necessarily a mark of poor management from an investing standpoint.
I think your bias is showing. People with bias make poor investors.
@trombonejoe @scottjshapiro Is it your view that the best use of $50B at Tesla is to pay a single employee?
Bogie B. 🇨🇦 🇺🇸@scottjshapiro There are a slew of cheaper competitors in 2023, Tesla has used up it's gov't rebates/tax credits, & Musk has alienated high end eco-conscious buyers. Where's the good news for investors?
Robert Denby@bogie @scottjshapiro That they can afford to buy a lot more shares and hope they eventually bounce back when Musk finds another, less public grift.
smozi@scottjshapiro turn your phone upside down
Infinite Cyclist@scottjshapiro some call that a buying opportunity.
@scottjshapiro apparently not
Mike Masin@scottjshapiro It might if Musk resigns (from Tesla) and it definitely will if he abandons Twitter.
But he said he'll continue to run the software & servers teams (a full-time job) after he resigns as CEO.
In that scenario, he'll still be like worn-out boxers that fall down around the knees. Good only for causing chaos.
Profane Mystic@scottjshapiro This is starting to feel like a double blind scientific study by the universe into the topic of “Can billionaires even feel regret? Or have they so thoroughly internalized ‘Up and to the right!’ that they’re impervious to reality?”
nagleess@scottjshapiro probably not until Musk moves on. He’s done a great job getting the company this far, but the bubble has clearly burst and someone with better production know-how is desperately needed.
@scottjshapiro only if you look at it upside down
@scottjshapiro there can be only down
MOVED:They faux'd around & found out!@[email protected] Does Elmo ever shut up? (Notice the inverse relationship?)
sullisean@scottjshapiro It’s still overvalued and has a long way to go.
Ford Eytou
Anil Kalhan@scottjshapiro in smoke?
DHa@scottjshapiro only when going to school in the snow