When I have a moment, I'll start sending out some more detailed analysis on voter turnout in Florida, now that nearly all the counties have provided individual-level data.
It is quite clear from the administrative data that the Democrats' shellacking was driven more by lack of turnout than vote choice.
Roughly 47.5% of registered Ds voted, compared to nearly 62% of registered Rs. Turnout of NPAs, who often support Ds, was abysmal, only 34.3%.
When considering past turnout, of those who voted in 2018 and were still registered in Nov 2022, over 80% of Rs voted; only 68% of Ds turned out, and only 63% of NPAs.
I suspect many of the more than Ds who voted in 2018, but who stayed home in 2022 were not enamored by Charlie Crist's candidacy.
Of the 2.95m Democrats who voted in 2018 and who were still on the rolls this past November, only 77% of white voters cast ballots in the 2022 GE, 61% of Black voters cast ballots, and 56% of Hispanics cast ballots.
In contrast, of the 3.15m Republicans who voted in 2018 and who were still on the rolls this past November, 81% of white voters cast ballots in the 2022 GE, 63% of Black voters cast ballots, and 77% of Hispanics cast ballots.
The last number jumps out: Hispanic Rs voted in 2022.
The Miami-Dade county figures are particularly striking.
Turnout of Hispanic Ds in Miami-Dade who voted in 2018 was nearly 20 percentage points lower than that the turnout of Hispanic Rs--some 4 out of 5 Hispanic Rs who voted in 2018 in the county turned out in 2022, compared to just 61% of Hispanic Ds and NPAs in the county.
Statewide, young voters in Florida stayed home.
Of the more than 1.4m registered 24-29 year-olds, only 22.4% turned out, 2 points less than the 24% turnout rate of 18-23 year-olds, and 46 percentage points lower than that of the 65+ crowd (which topped 68% turnout).
More than 800k 18-23 year-olds and more than 1.1m 24-29 year-olds stayed home in 2022.
Young voters are more likely to be registered Ds than Rs (a 10 percentage point difference) , though the plurality (nearly 37%) are NPAs
One out of four young (<30) Ds voted; 33% of young Rs voted; but only 15% of young NPAs voted.
Young females are more likely to be registered as Ds (40%) than young men (29.5%).
But young female Ds in Florida did not swamp the polls in 2022. only 26% of young female Ds voted, compared to 23% of young male Ds.
Young Republicans turned out at much higher rates across the board: 34% of young female Rs voted, and 32% of young male Rs turned out.
Daniel A. Smith
JMFC