Calibre ObscuraApropos of nothing, those now confidently saying a dramatic Russian offensive from Belarus/Transnistria is inevitable need to think carefully about the reasons for regional actors to proclaim that they are eminent and what resources the RF would need for another full scale push.
I'm not saying they won't try anything, as this isn't my area of focus, but at least from a broad viewpoint we aren't seeing signalling from Western Intel of this (Contrary to Anglos last Dec-Feb) and Russian resource constraints are dramatic cf Murz et al https://wartranslated.com/#google_vignette
A force barely able to take a few 100m per week and still with dramatic structural issues that have remained since Day 1, and that has had the majority of trained troops and equipment gone to the big training camp in the sky, is not well positioned for Feb 24th v2 but I digress.
I am (obviously) pro Ukraine but there really is a lack of critical judgement as to their messaging since Day1.
They run info ops very well, and the Moldovans do it too, so please take that into account when making bold statements. ps Consider Ukrainian force regeneration too...
I guess if the Ukrainians want a nice big warehouse of T-64BV and the Moldovans want the EU €€€ the best thing they can do is encourage the Transnistrian mafia to play silly games?
Malice@CalibreObscura People tend to accept Ukrainian propaganda uncritically, completely forgetting that it's still propaganda. The fact that so many do so is honestly a testament to the quality of Ukrainian propaganda (which I'll admit is deadass inspiring), but should still always be taken with a big grain of salt.
I'm not super worried about ground forces from Belarus crossing over, if only because there's I think 3 roads from there into Ukraine? and everything else is mainly marshland. Wouldn't put it past them, but best of luck w/that one.