Good morning to readers, from southern Ukraine.
Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands, but as we approach 300 days of war, there are no signs that it will end soon.
The NYT reports Putin is ready to accept 300k troop casualties, or ~3x more than current estimates.
NYT piece is well worth your time.
A mix of first-person perspective of Russian soldiers ...
and from Oleg Tsaryov, which US intelligence ID'd as a potential leader the Kremlin could install in Ukraine:
"We're losing... We've already lost it."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html
But in Ukraine, there is already constant talk about a renewed Russian offensive against Kyiv.
The ISW has predicted that "Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15
Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time. Russian President Vla
Tim Mak
Jamie Baker Roskie