Good morning to readers, from southern Ukraine.
Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands, but as we approach 300 days of war, there are no signs that it will end soon.
The NYT reports Putin is ready to accept 300k troop casualties, or ~3x more than current estimates.
NYT piece is well worth your time.
A mix of first-person perspective of Russian soldiers ...
and from Oleg Tsaryov, which US intelligence ID'd as a potential leader the Kremlin could install in Ukraine:
"We're losing... We've already lost it."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html
But in Ukraine, there is already constant talk about a renewed Russian offensive against Kyiv.
The ISW has predicted that "Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15
Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed. A Russian attack from Belarus is not imminent at this time. Russian President Vla
In the first phase of the war, Ukraine was able to save Kyiv by preventing Russia from establishing air superiority, by aggressive ambushes from the forests near Chernihiv using Javelins (despite being outnumbered 5:1), and by holding Antonov Airport.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html
But away from military tactics, I have always thought that the Battle for Kyiv hinged on one other thing:
A social media post put out by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, where he said in a video on Feb 25: "We are in Kyiv."
Overheard in Kyiv cafes over the last couple days: a mixture of Christmas music and then, American rap:
'Fresh Prince of Bel Air,' followed by 'All Falls Down,' for example.
Here, a Santa being set up for Christmas decorations:
Spotted in Kyiv: a young man halting cars at an intersection without traffic lights, so that an elderly woman tightly wrapped in thick clothing can cross the road in a city with intermittent power
(I didn’t manage to snap a photo in time)
I met an American fighter in Ukraine wearing crocs with sport mode activated.
“I got them in Mykolaiv before Kherson was taken. I call them my combat crocs. I’ll never get rid of them.”
“I’ll probably die in them,” he joked darkly
(Photo is of area we had dinner, not crocs)
Power outages are just becoming a way of life. During lunch it went out.
The waitress lit a candle and swiftly brought out a handheld Bluetooth speaker, which played 80s hit ‘(I Just) Died In Your Arms’
The Christmas light had been on battery power the whole time.
I came back to Kyiv expecting more businesses to be closed.
But to my surprise, a subjective walk around central Kyiv showed a number of *new* businesses open that weren't there in the summer.
Like this sushi restaurant operating on a gas generator.
For today's Dog of War, I was passing through the city of Uman recently and I wanted to revisit these stray dogs that I had seen in April.
A large number of them had taken over this area in the central part of the city.
At one point, I saw a dog a block off on the distance, but it disappeared by the time I turned the corner.
I did find this Garfield-looking chonker though so you’ll have to deal with only having a Cat of War today
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