anlomedadDec 13, 2022

Interesting article in FT on #Dunkelflaute in UK #EnergyCrisis https://www.ft.com/content/93d61f33-b1f9-4791-a9f8-37d826bd68af and the quoted paper: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/20/6508

11 EU-countries get 100hrs each winter month from #Dunkelflaute events that lasted > 24h. (23h-events aren't included in the 100h..!)

But we don't know how the changing climate will change the regional winter weather. Or how lower ship traffic will change cloud cover (40% of ocean ships carry fossil fuels – their SO2 and soot will be gone-->different clouds).
1/2

The dreaded Dunkelflaute is no reason to slow UK’s energy push

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Financial Times
Show threadanlomedad

2/2
So above paper finds ~100hr #Dunkelflaute-events.

This analysis for Germany in the same timespan as #1, finds a whopping 61day #Dunkelflaute from Dec1996 to Jan1997 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4dc8
They used ENTSO-E generation/capacity data but not paired with meteorological stuff.

I wonder why the authors of the paper in #1 didn't also find the 61day low #renewables electricity generation in the 90s. They used data from https://www.renewables.ninja/#/country
and weather from #Merra2.

Ah well. Mut zur Lücke.😁

Dec 13, 2022 at 8:44pmWeb
Show threadanlomedadDec 14, 2022

Before they published it peer-reviewed, one of the authors of paper #2 (🇩🇪focus) had a🧵 where he also replied to counter-arguments against the concluded 35TWh storage requirement or study design.

And the question remains why the EU-paper in #1 did not find the 61day #Dunkelflaute in 1996/97 bc one picture in this tweet https://nitter.net/QvistStaffan/status/1428021762353139717 states: ~all neighboring countries experienced an electricity production low and wdn't have been able to export.

Now I need to check for myself...

3/x

Show threadanlomedadDec 14, 2022

Really a 61day #Dunkelflaute 12-1996-01-1997, acc to paper in #2?
In winter, Germany's electricity demand relies much on wind onshore/offshore.
The analysis in #1 is based on a tool based on #Merra2. Download Germany data here https://www.renewables.ninja/#/country
But the datasets provided don't include meteorological wind, only pressure and PV-relevant data.
And Merra2 only has wind data at 10m anyway!

But #Era5 is a high resolution reanalysis and includes windspeeds at 100m https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/software/app-c3s-daily-era5-statistics?tab=app

4/x

Renewables.ninja