Mike HoneyDec 2, 2022

Western Europe is clearly in the grip of a fresh wave of covid, with a sharp uptick in hospital admissions in several adjacent countries, not long after their recent BQ.* waves. It's difficult to find trends in the genomic sequencing data to explain this in most of these countries - the recent data is from most is quite thin.

I'm focusing on Denmark, where genomic sequencing output is prompt and dense. There, it seems BN.1.3.1 from the BA.2.75.* "Centaurus" clan is the new lineage showing the most significant growth (6%).

There's some growth from the other lineages in the BA.2.75.* "Centaurus" clan, notably BN.1.4 (2%).

#COVID19 #Europe #Denmark #BN_1_3_1 #BN_1_4 #BQ
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Show threadMike HoneyDec 2, 2022

Here's the high-level variant picture for Denmark:

The BQ.* clan of lineages grew steadily during October to dominance (41%).

The BA.5.* clan is steadily fading (35%).

There's recent growth from the BA.2.75.* lineages (14%) - the leading challenger.

Show threadMike HoneyDec 2, 2022
In Denmark, the growth in the BQ.* clan is mostly driven by the BQ.1.1 "Cerberus" lineage (17%).
Show threadMike HoneyDec 2, 2022
For Denmark, the BN.1.3.1 lineage is showing a growth advantage of 3% per day against BQ.1.1, which predicts a crossover in late December.
Show threadMike HoneyDec 2, 2022

A fresh wave of hospital admissions has clearly started in Denmark, and also in Belgium, France and the Netherlands, with remarkable synchronicity. The more intense genomic sequencing data from Denmark is likely a useful guide to the lineages driving the waves in other countries.

Weekly hospital admissions are up to 63/M in Denmark, following a trough around 21 November at 41/M.

As with the recent BQ.* waves, it's remarkable how a relatively low frequency of a new lineage can spark severe outcomes.

Show threadMike HoneyDec 2, 2022
Daily reported cases in Denmark are up to 146/1M, following a trough around 22 November at around 91/M.
Show threadLes Lore

@mike_honey_ and I wonder what future impact is of growing %age of daily +ives being reinfection

on today's dashboard 515 +ives were first time & 517 +ives were reinfection

months ago the %age was low 20s & it has ramped steadily

https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning

Coronatal

Testede, smittede og dødsfald | Indlæggelser

Dec 3, 2022 at 12:16amWeb
Show threadMike HoneyDec 3, 2022
@leslore "first confirmed case" is almost certainly a lot higher than "first infection", so majority are now reinfections.