Mike HoneyNov 23, 2022

COVID cases in hospital continue to grow sharply in Victoria, up to 489.

The increase is already close to the growth seen in the BA.5 wave in August, which started from a far higher base. There's no sign of a peak, in fact the growth is accelerating.

There is no noticeable public health response to quell the spread of the new XBF and BQ.* lineages. The "mild" XBB lineages that drove the August wave in Singapore is at very low frequency and declining in Victoria and Australia, so I there's little reason to expect this wave to resemble Singapore's experience.

XBF is growing the fastest, so is presumably more transmissible. XBF was first identified recently in Victoria, so we are now running a live experiment on it's severity.

#COVID19 #Australia #VIC #Melbourne @auscovid19
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[Edited - original version overstated the cases hospitalised]

Show threadMike HoneyNov 23, 2022

The 7-day average of cases is rising again, up to 3,106 per day. I'm wondering if the recent "false summit" was the result of our PCR testing capacity being reduced and what remained being swamped by demand?

The trough was around 1,000 cases daily, around 22 Oct, so the daily case rate has tripled since.

The 4-day Reff (case momentum) for Victoria up to 1.06, so this wave's growth is accelerating again.

The recent Reff peak was at 1.39, on 10 Nov.

Show threadMike HoneyNov 23, 2022

The estimate for the % of the population currently infectious in Victoria is at 4.7%.

Inputs are unchanged:
- Median Infectious Period (days) = 10.
- Under-reporting Factor = 10

Show thread*siigghhhh*
@mike_honey_ does that mean you have applied 10X already to get to these numbers, or is it a warning that the numbers don't reflect reality.
Nov 23, 2022 at 3:00amWeb
Show threadMike HoneyNov 23, 2022

@si I've applied 10X already, based on a recent estimate from Deakin University epidemiology chair Professor Catherine Bennett. That's obvs subjective and you or I might prefer different estimates.

The shape of the curve is based on real reported cases.

Show thread*siigghhhh*Nov 23, 2022
@mike_honey_ thanks!