With the GOP projected to win the House thanks to gerrymandering, it’s worth revisiting my report from August 2021.
Dems missed a critical window to ban gerrymandering, and they’re paying for it.
Roe v. Wade likely will not be codified now.
Dems had until August 2021 — that’s when the Census Bureau delivered its data to the states and the map-drawing began. They focused instead on infrastructure. Then, they took August recess.
https://www.levernews.com/the-coming-redistricting-disaster/
@walkerbragman Most of this didn't happen. TX went from 24-12 to 25-13. NC went from 8-5 to 7-7. NH didn't end up with a GOP seat. Sharice Davids and John Yarmuth are still in Congress. MO stayed 6-2. MD stayed 7-1. NY didn't improve. MI, which you didn't mention, went from 7-7 to 7-6 and flipped the state legislature. The Dems didn't lose seats in OH or PA.
There wasn't a "GOP takeover that could last a decade."
@davehogg 100% the actual redistricting was less aggressive than my sources were expecting.
Still, the GOP has more power than it should due to redistricting. NY was a wildcard that looks like it will hurt Dems.
The important takeaway is that Dems didn’t use their window to ban gerrymandering. In a sense, they bet on NY.
@walkerbragman But the losing bet in New York was on the Democrats being able to gerrymander the map despite the constitutional amendment banning it. The map they ended up using is fairly good by most standards.
I'm biased because my state has the best Secretary of State in the country - Jocelyn Benson got Michigan a blue congressional seat and flipped the state legislature by making sure everything was done on a non-partisan basis. That's what NY should have done.
@walkerbragman The president's party has overperformed in almost every midterm/redistricting combination year since 1934.
Four of the most successful midterms for incumbent presidents - 1934, 1962, 2002 and 2022 - have come in redistricting years, and neither house of Congress changed hands in 1942 or 1982.
The Dems did lose seats in Florida, but they also performed badly in statewide elections.
Walker Bragman
Dave Hogg
Mike