What in your opinion is the greater conventional wisdom screwup of 2022?
@benjaminwittes young people don't vote. Freaking red wave was blue. 🌊
@benjaminwittes younger voters not being reached by pollsters
@bennettlomax @benjaminwittes Were they? (Honest question)
@Annbass @benjaminwittes my best guess but I really don’t know for sure
@bennettlomax @benjaminwittes My guess is young people came out to vote more than average due to abortion, democracy, climate, etc. But it seems unlikely that pollsters would have reached them much. Yet, I have no idea how pollsters reach anyone who doesn’t have a landline, so there ya go. BTW, I just heard this was the 2nd highest youth (18-24) midterm turn out after 2018. Yet it was still only 27% of youth voting. I’m eager for them to grow up and get to the polls!
@benjaminwittes Russia will take Kyiv in 72 hours.
@benjaminwittes - that lying, cheating and bullying (as normalized by tfg) is ok.
@benjaminwittes The failure to recognize that abortion is an economic issue.
@benjaminwittes The party that holds the WH loses the House
@benjaminwittes media is trying to stir the pot more than anything
@benjaminwittes that political miracles can't happen. For the first time in like a decade, Washington state district 3 is BLUE!!! 💙🇺🇸💙
@benjaminwittes is it too paranoid to hypothesize Mr. Musk was instructed to buy Twitter to deprive the forces of reason of a means of communication? It is at least a rational explanation for how bad he is running the company.
@benjaminwittes#EU needs Russian natural gas” - forgetting that it’s a standardized commodity with other sources, not a unique product. Also forgetting that gas itself is just one energy source among many, so it’s subject to the Substitution Effect. And oblivious to the lessons of the 1973 #OPEC oil embargo https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2013-10-15/how-1973-oil-embargo-saved-planet (paywalled, sorry, but the article’s title conveys the main point: blocking a #fossilfuel source was a good thing in the long run).
How the 1973 Oil Embargo Saved the Planet

The Arab members of OPEC responsible for the 1973 oil crisis inadvertently gave the rest of the world a life-saving head start in the struggle to avoid, or at least mitigate, the threat of catastrophic climate change. Forty years later, environmentalists owe them a debt of gratitude.

Foreign Affairs
@benjaminwittes Given Homo Sapiens track record, let's allow the year to end before we do this one...
@SpinozasHeresy @benjaminwittes hahaha … I wish there was a laughing button!
@benjaminwittes That abortion isn't a central "kitchen table" issue.