david robertsA new brief from @[email protected] arguing: "It is increasingly clear that global fossil fuel demand reached a peak in 2019 and we are now bumping along a plateau before the inevitable decline sets in." https://www.dropbox.com/s/gf1oq793mps8l5r/Global%20peak%20fossil%20fuel%20demand%20final%2011.pdf?dl=0
Renewables supplied 85% of growth in primary energy demand in 2019; soon it will be 100%. "Annual supply growth of solar & wind is 5 EJ, rising to around 16 EJ by 2030; annual total energy demand growth will average around 6 EJ this decade before falling back in the next decade."
Meanwhile, the basic tech building blocks of a clean-energy grid are all on S-curves, rapidly declining in price, as I covered on a recent pod. https://www.volts.wtf/p/learning-curves-will-lead-to-extremely#details
Learning curves will lead to extremely cheap clean energy
A newly published research paper out of Oxford suggests that a rapid energy transition will not "cost" anything -- it will save nearly a trillion dollars relative to the no-transition case. And the faster we move, the more money we save. I talk with complex-systems scientist and co-author Doyne Farmer about his optimistic projections.
The forces of growth & decline are currently closely matched, but "by the second half of the decade, it will be obvious that fossil fuels are in terminal decline." More from the "ff are peaking" series here: https://rmi.org/insight/peaking-why-fossil-fuel-demand-peaked-in-2019/
Final note: something @[email protected] has impressed upon me is that the financial health of the FF industry depends on growth. A plateau followed by decline, even if a small change in absolute terms, is HUGE for market dynamics. It triggers a self-reinforcing cascade of changes.
Hard to exaggerate what a fundamental, historic change it will be to see global FF tip into decline. Completely new territory for industrialized society.
Zach Flanders@drvolts What do you have against the Foo Fighters?