So assuming Republicans take control of the House of Representatives -- what does that actually mean for US support to #Ukraine?
And what should we expect in the lame duck session?
On the Ukraine assistance question, I think the answer is "not much" -- at least until 2025.
For assistance through 2023, I expect to see a Ukraine assistance fund (probably via NDAA) which will fund all the the tranches of financial, military, and humanitarian support all next year.
For support in *2024*, that's a harder problem, but I suspect again, NDAA late next year will do the same: a "trust fund" to support presidential drawdowns for tranches of support through 2024.
IOW, I don't think US support to Ukraine is going to materially change in any meaningful way; it's easy enough to structure it against R opposition
Outside of the Ukraine assistance support package, there's three other things I'll be looking at:
1. Electoral Reform Act -- that'll get a big push during the lame duck. If it passes, it passes, if it doesn't it dies. But lots of interest in getting that through in the lame duck
2. Debt ceiling hike -- not getting that done will mean a government shutdown next year, so I expect they'll get that done
3. 702 reauth needs to happen before Dec 2023.
Some of those are a bit bureaucratic, but that's the four big things I'll be watching for in the next two months (assuming projections hold and Rs take the House but not the Senate).
The Ukraine assistance fund in particular is going to be a bit weirdly structured, so you'll need to be a bit careful with the numbers.
But anyway, a longer version of what the midterms mean for US assistance to Ukraine, and what to watch in the lame duck
https://www.pwnallthethings.com/p/what-do-the-midterms-mean-for-us
Pwnallthethings
Brad Landers