The collapse of Twitter is a system breakdown. Mastodon and the fediverse represent something different: _system change_. From for-profit "Big Tech" to nonprofit, open source, community-owned public spaces.
System change is always harder than you think. It always incurs short-term costs, with hoped for long-term benefits.
The next few weeks will be really tough for the fediverse. Stick around, vibe with it, and you just might help us put a huge part of the web back in community hands. <3
Expect some of the following to happen in the coming weeks:
- celebrities with huge follower counts pushing tiny community-run servers to their knees
- instance admin burnout; shutting down of servers
- big new servers that don't "vibe" with common rules or culture being widely defederated
- some notable account violating an instance code of conduct and throwing a fit
- lots of people ragequitting Mastodon for one reason or another
- etc.
It'll be a rough ride. Patience and strength, all.
@zoran @eloquence
Your question picks one metric of success; let's look at another.
When I joined Twitter in 2008 it felt like a gathering place for friends and family. A few people I already knew, and many I could easily talk to. Many things grew out of that dynamic: ideas, relationships, events, business connections, learning.
In 2022 Mastodon offers something more like that. We can see limitations because it's not all that Twitter has become, but it *is* something valuable.
So, two observations:
1. If you're looking for something more "social" from your social networking, and you happen to have some friends who have already come here, it doesn't matter whether they're celebrities or not. There may be reason to spend more time here regardless. Mastodon doens't have to vanquish Twitter to flourish in that way. It's less important to a federated system than a corporate-driven one that it tend toward monopoly.
2. It's not impossible that Mastodon *could* supercede Twitter. The dynamics @eloquence describes could drive some "big names" here in the short term; but in the long term, it will be individuals migrating here for organic reasons that will attract more celebs. Celebs, politicians, businesses will tend to go where the crowds are.
Erik Moeller
Z O R A N G R B I C
Pete Forsyth