Tom Nomad@franklinlopez
I'll check it out later for sure!
I'll check it out later for sure!
@franklinlopez
OK, finally got a few moments to sit down and process this, and have assembled the following thoughts:
@franklinlopez
The scenario planning here is interesting, but as others have mentioned it falls into a level of simplicity, which frames the entirety of the analysis. This occurs for two clear reasons, based on the terms of the discussion. The first is that the author is assuming that the election is actually between Biden and Trump, and that this identifies clearly delineated sides.
The scenario planning here is interesting, but as others have mentioned it falls into a level of simplicity, which frames the entirety of the analysis. This occurs for two clear reasons, based on the terms of the discussion. The first is that the author is assuming that the election is actually between Biden and Trump, and that this identifies clearly delineated sides.
@franklinlopez
It might seem odd to claim that this is not the case, from a "normal" framing of the political dynamic within the US, but in this circumstance, the reasons it is not this way are actually critical to understand in order to gain an insight into what might occur here.
It might seem odd to claim that this is not the case, from a "normal" framing of the political dynamic within the US, but in this circumstance, the reasons it is not this way are actually critical to understand in order to gain an insight into what might occur here.
@franklinlopez
The second cause of some of the interesting artifacts in this analysis (which I think is actually really solid given these assumptions), is that it is addressing the question of what is to occur largely from the perspective of actions within the State, which minimizes the role of the uprising in these dynamics.
The second cause of some of the interesting artifacts in this analysis (which I think is actually really solid given these assumptions), is that it is addressing the question of what is to occur largely from the perspective of actions within the State, which minimizes the role of the uprising in these dynamics.
@franklinlopez
In other words, at some point, depending on how things play out, this is going to shift from a question of Statecraft, and State leadership into a question of street actions and the challenging of the ability of the State to continue in its present form.
In other words, at some point, depending on how things play out, this is going to shift from a question of Statecraft, and State leadership into a question of street actions and the challenging of the ability of the State to continue in its present form.
@franklinlopez
The election is not actually, in its nuances, between Biden and Trump. Rather, the election is between Trump and not Trump, or, in other words, it is a referendum on Trump.
The election is not actually, in its nuances, between Biden and Trump. Rather, the election is between Trump and not Trump, or, in other words, it is a referendum on Trump.
Coming Soon@tom_nomad @franklinlopez I am old enough to remember that 2004 was a referendum on Bush, we know how that went
@CharmingRuins @franklinlopez
Oh yeah, I remember that well. It essentially killed the antiwar movement.
I think this time is different for two reasons. First, the hatred for Trump is based on existential fear domestically, not just dislike of his policies. Secondly, unlike the antiwar movement, which was passive, this current uprising has motivated a lot of the people in opposition to really fight, and I don't see that waning because of electoralism, like it did in 2004.
@tom_nomad @franklinlopez there was also not a pervasive feeling of existential dread back then as there is now. We are not de-escalating the level of urgency and polarization we have now...possibly ever. Shit will only get wilder as the wheels fall of Earth’s wagon