Beyond Hormuz: Busy and risky global shipping channels

Once again, the Strait of Hormuz has become the unfortunate ground zero for the world’s power brokers. But, it’s definitely not the only major shipping channel that has geopolitical risks associated with it. Of the busiest global shipping channels, at least four are currently experiencing instability, not to mention the usual risks from weather, pirates (yes pirates), and navigational dangers.

The Kerch Strait (see map below in the list) between Russia and Ukraine has been impacted by the ongoing war between those two nations and the Taiwan Strait is affected by tensions between China and Taiwan. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait (see map below in the list) between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula has been the scene of attacks on shipping, as well.

While the Strait of Hormuz is vital to oil and natural gas, it pales on in comparison to other global shipping channels listed below for the total number of ships/year passing through it. This maybe due to the immense size of oil tankers compared to other ships, but it is also located a bit off-the-beaten-path from the main shipping routes plus the Strait of Hormuz has only one real outlet. Furthermore, two pipelines have redirected a portion of the crude oil away from the Strait of Hormuz (see map just below) to other shipping points.

Fortunately, most of world’s busiest shipping channels are presently peaceful. But the risks associated with them does point to their strategic and tactical importance. And while they are now quiet, they haven’t always been so. Unfortunately, with increased importance comes added risk(s) or at least the potential for upheaval.

Unlike other resources that combine all Danish and St. Lawrence shipping channels into one number, this blogpost breaks these two routes down into their subparts to provide a more detailed picture. Given that there are multiple shipping channel options through the Danish Straits alone, it did not seem accurate to combine them all into one category. Similarly, at 1,900 miles, the sheer length of the St. Lawrence Seaway system was out of character with these other major passages.

The busiest global shipping channels (whether currently peaceful or risky) are provided below. As always, any additions, corrections, or suggestions to the list below are most welcome.

Peace!

_______

Listed based on commercial ships per year passing through:

• English Channel = 350 miles long and ~182,500 ships/year

• Strait of Gibraltar = 37 miles long and ~109,500 ships/year

• Luzon Strait = 175 miles in length and ~100,000 ships/year

• Strait of Malacca = 310 miles long and ~94,000 ships/year

• Taiwan Strait = 220 miles long and ~91,250 ships/year

• Singapore Strait = 70 miles long and ~90,000+ ships/year

• Strait of Sicily = 370 miles long and ~85,000 ships/year

Subsections of the Danish Straits are provided below:

• Storebaelt = 40 miles long and ~ 76,000 ships/year
• Oresund Strait = 73 miles long and ~35,000 ships/year

• Bosphorus Strait = 20 miles long and ~55,000 ships/year

• Kanmon Strait = 17 miles long and ~50,000 ships/year

• Darndanelles Strait = 38 miles long and ~44,500 ships/year

• Kiel Canal = 61 miles long and ~32,850 ships/year – see Danish Straits map above

• Suez Canal = 119 miles long and ~20,440 ships/year

• Strait of Hormuz = 104 miles long and ~20,000 ships/year

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait = 70 miles long and ~20,000 ships/year

• Korea Strait ~ 170 miles long and ~17,410 ships/year

• Messina Strait = 20 miles long and ~15,000 ships/year

• Panama Canal = 51 miles long and ~14,000 ships/year (less during drought periods)

• Kerch Strait = 23.5 miles long and ~9,000 ships/year (fewer than prior to the invasion of Ukraine)

Subsections of the St. Lawrence Seaway are provided below:

• St. Mary’s Canal = 1.6 miles long and ~8,500 ships/year
• St. Clair River/Strait = 40 miles long and ~5,000 ships/year
• Welland Canal = 27.5 miles long and ~3,000 ships/year
• Straits of Mackinac = 30 miles long and ~2,500 ships/year
• Detroit River/Strait = 30 miles long and ~1,500 ships/year

• Strait of Juan de Fuca = 100 miles and ~8,000 ships/year

• Strait of Magellan = 350 miles long and ~1,500 ships/year

SOURCES:

• https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/02/worlds-busiest-ocean-shipping-routes-trade/
• https://iamovers.org/news/top-10-shipping-lanes-revealed/
• gemini.google.ai
• https://www.marineinsight.com/busiest-shipping-lanes-in-the-world/
• https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/wp-content/uploads/Map-Passages-with-Shipping-Routes.pdf
• https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94484/imf-bab-el-mandeb-strait-number-of-ships-and-transit-volume
• maps.google.com
• https://www.container-xchange.com/blog/shipping-routes
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Sicily#:~:text=The%20Strait%20of%20Sicily%20(also,the%20middle%20of%20the%20strait.
• https://www.salvogrima.com/salvo-grima-news/over-85000-tankers-and-ships-sail-by-malta-annually/
• https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-claims-successful-strike-on-2-russian-ships-ferrying-weapons/

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My experience in Kingston and Accra taught me that "clean data" is secondary to how a market thinks. We must build filters based on local cognitive patterns—knowing that a WhatsApp spike often carries more signal than an official report.

#MarketAnalysis #GlobalTrade #CognitiveScience #BusinessStrategy

Market analysis isn't a data problem; it’s a cognitive resonance problem—every market has a 'Demand Signature' that dictates what it will absorb, reward, or reject.

My experience in Kingston and Accra taught me that "clean data" is secondary to how a market thinks. We must build filters based on local cognitive patterns—knowing that a WhatsApp spike often carries more signal than an official report.

#MarketAnalysis #GlobalTrade #CognitiveScience #BusinessStrategy

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