Mastodawn

US leading indicators signal recession

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/us-leading-indicators-signal-recession.html

#EconDon #EconMastodon #Economy #Recession

US leading indicators signal recession

For various reasons, I haven't calculated my US cyclical indices for a year or more. But I've finally updated my US data banks and psyched...

Fight the Right Dec 8

US layoffs still trending up

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/us-layoffs-still-trending-up.html

#EconDon #EconMastodon #Unemployment #Recession

US layoffs still trending up

The latest data from Challenger show that layoffs fell in November, after a spike in October. These data are not seasonally adjusted, and ...

Fight the Right Dec 7

US private data index suggest ongoing weakness

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/us-private-data-index-suggest-ongoing.html

#EconDon #EconMastodon

US private data index suggest ongoing weakness

I've updated my US private data index, originally created to fill the gap caused in public data by the prolonged shutdown. I've also added...

Fight the Right Dec 6

World PMI very sluggish

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/world-pmi-very-sluggish.html

#EconMastodon

World PMI very sluggish

This is my calculation of world manufacturing PMI, compared with J.P. Morgan's calculation . I only started keeping the J.P. Morgan data in...

Fight the Right Dec 2

US manufacturing stagnates

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/us-manufacturing-stagnates.html

#EconMastodon

US manufacturing stagnates

As usual, the line to watch is the thick green one, which should have less variability than either individual index. (Both indices are extre...

Fight the Right Dec 2

Oz's headline inflation picks up

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/ozs-headline-inflation-picks-up.html

#EconMastodon

Oz's headline inflation picks up

Australia's inflation rate has picked up, but that (mostly) is not a sign that inflation really is increasing, but is rather a result of st...

Fight the Right Dec 1

A very clear slowdown in China

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/12/a-very-clear-slowdown-in-china.html

#China #EconMastodon #Recession

A very clear slowdown in China

A very clear slowdown. (See China's manufacturing PMI heads south ) Europe is (more or less) still recovering, though I would not describe...

Fight the Right Nov 25

Big 5 expansion slows

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/11/big-5-expansion-slows.html

#EconMastodon

Big 5 expansion slows

The big 5 PMI index is a GDP-weighted average of the US, UK, Japan, India and Euro-zone PMIs. The big 5 make up just over 50% of the world...

Fight the Right Nov 24

US stagflation?

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/11/us-stagflation.html

#Stagflation #EconMastodon #Economy

US stagflation?

I've talked before about my composite index made up of private sector time series. The aim was to provide some sort of indicator while o...

Fight the Right Nov 24

US PMIs: growth OK-ish, prices not.

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2025/11/us-pmis-growth-ok-ish-prices-not.html

#Stagflation #Economy #EconMastodon

US PMIs: growth OK-ish, prices not.

The latest PMI data for the USA show that the economy is still advancing, perhaps a little more slowly. S&P Global's comment on prices sugg...