Mastodawn

Feeble US recovery due to Trump

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/04/feeble-us-recovery-due-to-trump.html

Feeble US recovery due to Trump

This chart shows the average of the PMI and ISM indices for the US (before 2011, it's the ISM alone), broken up into the services and the ma...

Fight the Right Apr 12

Stagflation, episode 2

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/04/stagflation-episode-2.html

#Economy #EconDon

Stagflation, episode 2

These ISM sub-indices give implicit forecasts of the direction of prices and employment. Thanks to the Iran War, prices (red line) are head...

Fight the Right Apr 12

Warning of world recession from PMI/ISM data

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/04/warning-of-world-recession-from-pmiism.html

#Economy #EconDon

Warning of world recession from PMI/ISM data

When economists first started analysing the business cycle, it was manufacturing* which led the cycle. The interaction between stocks (inve...

Fight the Right Feb 22

China's economy is slowing

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/02/chinas-economy-is-slowing.html

#China #EconDon #Economy

China's economy is slowing

This chart shows the change over six months in China's volume of industrial production. The recovery which began in mid-2024 has aborted, ...

Fight the Right Jan 28

Stagnation continues in Big-5 in January

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/01/stagnation-continues-in-big-5-in-january.html

#EconDon #Economy

Stagnation continues in Big-5 in January

There was a slight uptick in the big-5 whole economy PMI in January (provisional data), but the trend remains down. All three PMIs remain ...

Fight the Right Jan 12

Dear Goddess, this will play havoc with markets. Trump is *insane*

Recession, here we come.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckGHaBLSn4

#EconDon #Republicans #Economy

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

YouTube

Fight the Right Jan 9

US labour market still weak

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/01/us-labour-market-still-weak.html

#EconDon #Economy

US labour market still weak

The BLS labour market data for December were released overnight (my time zone). Payrolls continue to slide. The ADP data only cover the p...

Fight the Right Jan 7

No reason to raise rates in Australia

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/01/no-reason-to-raise-rates-in-australia.html

#EconDon #Australia #Stagnation #CommodityBoom #RBA #Economy

No reason to raise rates in Australia

Australia's official inflation rate fell in November. By the way, our CPI data are now monthly. Previously, the official indices were quar...

Fight the Right Jan 6

Europe's PMI turns down

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/01/europes-pmi-turns-down.html

#EconDon #Economy #Europe

Europe's PMI turns down

The dotted lines show the PMI indices for manufacturing/services for the Euro Area, each extreme-adjusted (by me) to remove "spikes". The s...

Fight the Right Jan 5

US manufacturing weakens

https://volewica.blogspot.com/2026/01/us-manufacturing-weakens.html

#EconDon #Economy

US manufacturing weakens

As always, if you average two (statistically) independent time series, the standard deviation of the average is less than either of its com...