Most risk management is actually worst-case management.

We imagine the bad scenario and design to prevent it. Useful. But used alone, it makes organisations over-cautious and slow.

Expected value thinking asks a different question: across all plausible outcomes, what do we get on average? That's a different frame, and it often leads to a different decision.

What decision are you making based on worst case alone?

#BusinessDesign #RiskThinking #DecisionMaking