📊 **Elche CF vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, Nov 7 2025)**

Model vs Bookmakers ⚙️
λHome 1.27 | λAway 0.61 | ρ –0.04

🎯 **Model (fair):** 1 51.7 % X 30.5 % 2 17.8 %
🎰 **Market (2.05 | 3.35 | 5.75)**
→ Normalised: 1 50.8 % X 31.1 % 2 18.1 %

⚽ **Totals:** Over 1.5 56.7 % Over 2.5 29.4 % BTTS 33.1 %

🧠 **Takeaway:** Market ≈ Model → Fair line
📉 Under 2.5 / BTTS NO = Value
🏠 Elche 1X ≈ 82 % — solid home control

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