Mastodawn

SPC shows a marginal (2-4%) probability for an isolated tornado or two around Philly and South Jersey Sunday evening. 12z HRRR showing some SIGTOR values close to 1.0 and a decent supercell signature near Philly and into the Trenton area in the 8-9 pm EDT timeframe. Let’s see how this shakes out. Be alert Sunday night. #njwx #phillywx

Brian Kelley 23h ago

This concerns areas of New Jersey along and north of the I-195 corridor... #njwx

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r2ifdefeu4hhsvpbqzo7vyjh/post/3mo4cg6l2ab2s

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Brian Kelley 1d ago

Very odd…today should be a more widespread severe event than yesterday around here because of the dynamics and the front coming through, but the CAMs are really not seeing that at all, even on the latest 12z guidance. #njwx #phillywx

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Brian Kelley 1d ago

Well, the 12z NAM 3K lost any storms by late morning today and shows just a broken line moving through Central Jersey to the coast around 5 p.m. It keeps heavier stuff north and south of NJ. Not really buying that. Meso models are struggling with today’s setup. #njwx #phillywx

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Brian Kelley 1d ago

Hmm...only the 09z RRFS seemed to get these showers developing near the NY/NJ border this morning. And it also shows an isolated cell in South Jersey along with some 0.5 SIGTOR values late this morning. Be alert for things to get active around here sooner rather than later today. #njwx #phillwx

Brian Kelley 1d ago

Hmm...this morning's 06z NAM 3K run is showing a line of storms moving through Philly and South Jersey as early as 11 am EDT this morning — at the same time the model is showing marginal conditions for an isolated tornado around the region. #njwx #phillywx

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Brian Kelley 1d ago

And there it is..cell about to move into Philly is severe-warned and the part of the line moving just north of me is also intensifying. Looks like my location is catching the collapsing middle of the line. #njwx #pawx

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Brian Kelley 1d ago

The cells in North Jersey ramped back up to severe criteria. Will the cells approaching I-95 do the same? #njwx #pawx

Brian Kelley 1d ago

This part of the line weakened below severe criteria, but I see some signs it could be pulsing up again so keep an eye on it. #njwx #pawx

Brian Kelley 1d ago

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of New Jersey until midnight. #njwx