PEMEX & Energy Security in the Face of the International Crisis - Abolish Capital!
This article by Aníbal García Fernández originally appeared in the March 24,
2026 edition of
[https://contralinea.com.mx/interno/semana/pemex-seguridad-energetica-ante-la-crisis-internacional/]
Revista Contralínea
[https://contralinea.com.mx/interno/semana/pemex-seguridad-energetica-ante-la-crisis-internacional/].
Oil is the engine of the world and, particularly, of capitalism. However, it is
a finite resource, so finite that some analyses indicate that global oil
production has already passed; others place the decline in global production
around 2027-2028, and still others until 2040. Mexico has just over nine years
of oil reserves and seven years of gas reserves remaining. Therefore, it is
important to strengthen energy sovereignty, but even more so, energy security.
On March 18, 1938, Mexico opposed the continued privatization of its resources.
This date is significant because it marked an international milestone with the
expropriation of oil from U.S. companies; it also ended a years-long conflict
with oil workers and served as a precedent for future expropriations in other
countries.
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-126.png] The oil
expropriation is deeply linked to the Mexican Constitution and the application
of Article 27. As Lorenzo Meyer mentioned in his book Las raíces del
nacionalismo petrolero en México (“The Roots of Oil Nationalism in Mexico”),
after the Mexican Revolution the United States government interpreted that, if
the 1917 Constitution were implemented, “not only would the material interests
of American capitalists have been affected, but even their political hegemony
would have been reduced in their still small but growing area of influence.” It
is under this interpretation that the application of the Mexican Constitution,
from its inception, has served as a bulwark against the hegemony of the
neighboring country, as it protects national resources and sovereignty. This
explains why successive governments of that nation have made countless efforts
to amend it, particularly Article 27, along with Articles 25 and 28, which
regulate energy in our country and the economic model. These efforts, of course,
include the Mexican political and economic elite who subscribe to these
unpatriotic principles. However, energy security is equally important. Its
defining element is the relationship between hydrocarbon reserves and production
in our country. But it must be clear that energy security goes beyond this,
considering energy a public good provided by the State to ensure the continuity,
reliability, accessibility, affordability, and sustainability of fuel and
electricity supply as pillars of development. Perhaps, as a result of
international events, it will become increasingly relevant to consider minerals
as part of energy security, but that is another topic for future discussion.
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-131.png] Oil
Reserves & Production in Mexico ----------------------------------- Mexico has
9.8 years of oil reserves remaining. According to data from PEMEX’s Directorate
of Planning, Coordination, Performance, and Sustainability, proven crude oil
reserves in 2024 are 5.293 billion barrels of oil equivalent . Meanwhile, oil
production, according to the state-owned company, is 1,485 barrels per day.
Therefore, in scenario “A,” where no new reserves are added and the current
production rate is maintained, Mexico has oil reserves until 2033. If probable
reserves (which have a recovery confidence level of 50 percent or more) are
added, and with the same rate of oil production, Mexico has 17 more years . It
is important to remember that the country’s oil production peaked in 2004,
reaching a maximum output of over 3,380 barrels per day. From then on,
production declined, as did reserves, as shown in Figure 1. Chart 1. Crude oil
reserves by six-year term
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-127.png] However,
the outlook for gas is not so different. Mexico’s reserves are only 7.3 years
long, considering proven reserves in 2024 and production for the same year. If
probable reserves are included, the national reserves would be 13 years long,
that is, until 2037. The main culprits for the loss of sovereignty and energy
security are the PRI and PAN governments, which prioritized the export of crude
oil, the loss of oil transformation processes, the division of the petrochemical
industry, and the division of PEMEX to bankrupt it. To illustrate the above,
during the neoliberal period, according to the agency’s data, 562 oil wells were
drilled under Carlos Salinas, producing 13.25 million barrels per day; under
Ernesto Zedillo, 1,089 wells were drilled, producing 17.486 million barrels per
day. However, the extractive focus was on Felipe Calderón — a illegitimate
president, as President Sheinbaum has stated — since during his six-year term,
6,211 wells were drilled, and production barely reached 16.146 million barrels
per day . With President López Obrador and the program to recover sovereignty,
but above all, energy security (a broader concept and just as important as
sovereignty), with 1,123 wells, production reached 10 million 581 thousand
barrels per day. Figure 2. Wells drilled and oil production by six-year term
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-128.png] Mexico
has not made any major oil well discoveries. The last one was Cantarell in the
1970s, and under Andrés Lajous’s administration at Pemex, it was decided to
inject nitrogen into it, resulting in a loss of production, and what was once
the second largest oil field in the world began to decline. Thus, the graph
above shows that with Calderón and Peña Nieto, the two Presidents of the
privatizing energy reforms, more oil wells were required and production
declined, that is, a loss of productivity was generated. But there is another
factor: the decline of oil fields in Mexico. Viewed historically, as shown in
the following graph, the country is already in a declining phase. A clear
example of this situation is that in 2004, the 200 wells in Cantarell produced
more than the 4,255 national wells in 2021. The difference is staggering: they
produced 25 times more than in 2021. Figure 3. Number and volume of crude oil
and fields discovered (1900-2015)
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-129.png]
According to data estimated by UNAM researchers Luca Ferrari and Diana Hernández
in their text Hydrocarbons Sector: Historical Evolution, Current Situation, and
Scenarios on Energy Sovereignty —published by the then-CONAHCYT in 2024—, in
2000 Cantarell accounted for 60 percent of national production with 200 wells.
By 2021, the Ku, Maloob, and Zaap fields, along with the next six
highest-producing fields, represented 62 percent, with 356 wells and an average
production of 3,033 barrels per day. The remaining 38 percent was covered by 200
fields with 3,899 wells. But the most relevant point is that, in 2000, the
relationship between investment and daily barrel yield was considerable. For
every million pesos invested, 66 barrels per day were obtained; in 2018, this
figure was only 11, an 83 percent reduction; and in 2020, the yield continued to
decline, as shown in the following graph . Chart 4. Investment in Pemex for
exploration and production and yield in barrels per day extracted for every
million pesos invested per year
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-130.png] That’s
why a state and a public company that guarantee the oil supply are so important,
as is a public policy that views energy as a good and a service, not just a
commodity. In fact, PEMEX has a National Strategy for Reactivating Closed Wells
with Opportunities dating back to 2025. The Global Energy Crisis
------------------------ The global energy crisis is rarely discussed until
significant international events occur, many of them geopolitical in nature.
However, during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, one news item that went
largely unnoticed was that of peak oil. In 2020, Rystad Energy stated that,
according to its analysis, global oil demand would reach its maximum of 102
million barrels per day in 2028. Equinor predicted a collapse in production in
2027 or 2028; the French firm Total placed it in 2030; McKinsey in 2033; and the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2040. Beyond the
companies’ analyses of international oil production data, the decline in the
rate of oil reserve discovery since the 1980s is evident. Between 1981 and 1990,
the annual growth rate of international oil reserves was 3.8 percent. The
following decade (1991-2000) saw a decrease to 1.9 percent; from 2001 to 2010 it
increased to 2.3 percent, before declining again from 2011 to 2020 to 0.3
percent. Easily extracted oil is running out, it is becoming increasingly
expensive, the remaining reserves are more contested, and consumption, although
it has slowed down, continues to grow; and the dispute pits powers with military
and nuclear power against each other.
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/pemex-oil-rig.jpg]
According to some analyses, our main trading partner, the United States, has six
more years of oil left at the production rate and reserves of 2023. And in gas,
they still have 20 more years at the production rate and proven reserves of
2024. It is important to remember that our energy matrix relies heavily on
natural gas, which is supplied by imports for 74 to 76 percent of our needs.
Some of this gas is injected into the energy system to generate electricity, a
significant problem of energy dependence resulting from neoliberal policies. In
his appearance before the Mexican Congress in 2025, the director of PEMEX, Dr.
Víctor Rodríguez Padilla – also an expert in energy security – stated: “The
vision of the President of the Republic, who is an expert in climate change and
global warming, and all the measures to counteract, prevent, and adapt to
climate change, is that the country’s resilience lies in not exceeding 1.8
million barrels per day. Maintaining that level of 1.8 million barrels per day
is essential to stabilize income and to safeguard our dwindling oil reserves for
the long term. Because, as I was saying, the transition is not easy; it is a
long process, and this has been seen in Europe. We cannot accelerate the
transition, no matter how much we might want to, because it would destabilize
the country.” At the 2025 Energy Forum held in August of that year in the Senate
of the Republic, the director of PEMEX also opened a debate that the Mexican
population needs to have: there are unconventional resources in the country that
would allow us to extend national oil and gas reserves a little longer, as well
as gain energy security; but it involves deciding whether or not to allow
fracking with new technology. * PEMEX & Energy Security in the Face of the
International Crisis
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Analysis [https://mexicosolidarity.com/category/analysis/] #### PEMEX & Energy
Security in the Face of the International Crisis
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/pemex-energy-security-in-the-face-of-the-international-crisis/]
March 27, 2026March 27, 2026 In Mexico, energy is a public good provided by the
State to ensure the continuity, reliability, accessibility, affordability, and
sustainability of fuel and electricity supply as pillars of development. *
People’s Mañanera March 27
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/claudia-sheinbaum-press-conference-october-30-large-1024x683.jpg]https://mexicosolidarity.com/peoples-mananera-march-27/
Mañanera [https://mexicosolidarity.com/category/mananera/] #### People’s
Mañanera March 27 [https://mexicosolidarity.com/peoples-mananera-march-27/]
March 27, 2026March 27, 2026 President Sheinbaum’s daily press conference, with
comments on disappearances, Cuba, and the US military crossing into Nogales,
Sonora. * “Mexico is the sister land that has always stood by Cuba, in good
times & bad.”
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/miguel-diaz-canel-amlo-cuba-mexico-large-1024x683.jpg]https://mexicosolidarity.com/mexico-is-the-sister-land-that-has-always-stood-by-cuba-in-good-times-bad/
Analysis [https://mexicosolidarity.com/category/analysis/] | Interviews
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/category/interviews/] #### “Mexico is the sister
land that has always stood by Cuba, in good times & bad.”
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/mexico-is-the-sister-land-that-has-always-stood-by-cuba-in-good-times-bad/]
March 27, 2026March 27, 2026 An interview with President of Cuba, Miguel
Díaz-Canel, by Luis Hernández Navarro of La Jornada. The post PEMEX & Energy
Security in the Face of the International Crisis
[https://mexicosolidarity.com/pemex-energy-security-in-the-face-of-the-international-crisis/]
appeared first on Mexico Solidarity Media [https://mexicosolidarity.com/]. —
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