I was wondering whether #hurricane are drifting more North and East toward Europe over time / in #ClimateChange

And they do.

Now I'm wondering which mechanism in the #ocean -#atmosphere system is responsible for the drift. 😁

The plots show data from NOAA #Hurdat 2 https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.html

The last day of each storm with its longitude, latitude and wind speed.
Top chart is the rolling average of 20 storms and linear trend lines for longitudes and latitudes.
Interesting patterns, eh? And rising trend lines = storms move East and North.

Bottom chart shows the actual storm data, here without wind speed.

I set the division line for the pink longitude bars at 340°E, thinking, storms which made it there in the past might in the mid-term reach 355°E which is Ireland's coast.

Note, the latitude axis on the right shows values in reverse order in this plot. It helps to see "hits" better when the pink longitude is high and the latitude comes down to meet it, that's when it gets interesting for Europe.
#FridaysForFuture

2023 gob-smackingly bananas😁 also produced more tropical storms in the Atlantic than would have been expected for an ElNino season which used to be low-storm-activity seasons. But the storm-suppressing ElNino setup lost over the storm-inducing ocean heat. This blogpost by Brian McNoldy (Senior Research Associate at the Univ. of Miami Rosenstiel School. Hurricanes, climatology, & sea level rise) just lists a few abnormalities about the 2023 Atlantic storm season: https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2023/11/despite-el-nino-hurricane-season.html
Now, this year with LaNina moving back in and the same ocean heat building up apparently as in 2023.🥁

But have a look at the chart at the top of the blogpost, the storm tracks. How they're all lured straight North, see?
Good for the US: only 2 made landfall last season – 3 if you count #Hurricane Lee's landfall in Nova Scotia in September.. . But is this straight-North-ness, which also brought Lee that far North, a new #climate feature proudly brought to us by Exxon-eq?
#Hurdat is so unweildy...

@BoeFlo @rahmstorf

Kann man: gar nich.
NOAA führt die #Hurdat Datenbank, wo alle Stürme mit ihren Stormtracks und Geschwindigkeiten drin stehen. Seit 1970 ungefähr ist die Berichtstiefe komplett, würd ich sagen, weil ich die Daten mal geplottet habe und mich erinnere, dass die Zahl der Stürme im Jahr ab 1970 oder so ziemlich gleich blieb = auch in jüngeren Jahren nicht mehr Stürme als 1970. Davor, je weiter man zurück geht, immer weniger, und zu Anfang nur welche, die in USA an Land aufgeschlagen sind. Aber sie wird immer noch mit neuen Stürmen aus der Vergangenheit aktualisiert https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HURDAT