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supersquirrelUkraine, Saudi Arabia sign major defense deal amid Iran war
Ukraine, Saudi Arabia sign major defense deal amid Iran war - Sopuli
Is this the beginning of a new coalition of nations that can counter balance the desire to go to war that the most powerful nations of the world such as the US and russia cannot suppress? A desire for war supported by equally powerful nations such as China and India that cannot resist but inflame the war for their own interests even as they “stand on the sidelines” remaining “neutral”? Or this rather this the beginning of Ukraine becoming rationalized into a broader World War? The hopeful part of me says this is not what the Arab world wants in the region, no matter how they feel about Iran, Israel, the US or russia, this is a blatant smash and grab on the future of the Arab world and there is the chance this coalition building with Ukraine might lead to an ability to slow this escalation into a World War down. Ukraine can deliver that capacity by reducing the immediate mass terror threat of shaheds significantly and sustainably. A lot of this comes down to what Saudi Arabia chooses to do in this moment, whether it chooses an easy intimacy with the US and indirectly Israel in terms of regional power or Saudi Arabia chooses to refuse this crude invitation into regressing the entire region backwards into instability and war.
Israel Is Struggling to Divide Lebanon | Julian Sayarer
Israel Is Struggling to Divide Lebanon | Julian Sayarer - Sopuli
> The permanent buzzing is integral to Israel’s strategy. Sometimes, even when bombs aren’t dropped, at night the drones remain low and loud overhead. “Every night my son is scared,” said Ali, a delivery man outside a cafe where we sit each morning. “He holds on to me so tight.” > The predominantly Christian neighbourhood of Achrafieh, where we talk, is comparatively safe. The Israeli intention, colonial to its core, is to produce enough division within Lebanon that the Lebanese state and its army – the former famously corrupt and the latter US-aligned – will take the fight to both Hezbollah and the wider Muslim community on its behalf, with a history of far-right and Christian extremist groups that can be drawn upon to help. Amid such sectarian strife, encouraged by increasing Israeli bombings outside of predominantly Shia areas, Lebanon would become more easily occupied for the project of Israeli settlement. > A nearby billboard shows a cross and a crescent, marking this year’s coinciding Lent and Ramadan – testament to Lebanon’s natural cosmopolitanism that coexists well without external instigation. Hezbollah – a proscribed organisation in the UK which successfully forced the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon in 2000 – is neither popular across Lebanon’s political spectrum nor so broadly unpopular as Anglosphere media represents, but after years of broadcast genocide by the Israeli military against Palestinian Arabs, Lebanese Arabs need no convincing that Israelis are not their friends.
Influence Tool: Gulf conflict illustrates strategic impact of mine warfare returning to the fore - European Security & Defence
Influence Tool: Gulf conflict illustrates strategic impact of mine warfare returning to the fore - European Security & Defence - Sopuli
> The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the face of various Iranian military capability threats has underlined the return to prominence of mine warfare as both a military-operational and politico-strategic tool. Despite the talk of drones, hypersonic missiles, and other new technologies, and of shifts to ‘hybrid’ force structures and ways of warfare, the humble sea mine continues to shape modern naval operations. Being an asymmetric threat, it is perhaps no surprise, thus, that it does so in a disproportionate way.
Without the USA: 30 Countries to Discuss Forming a Coalition to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Without the USA: 30 Countries to Discuss Forming a Coalition to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz - Sopuli
> After US President Donald Trump’s attempt to shift responsibility for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz to allies in Europe, as well as to Japan, Australia, and Canada, failed, preparations for missions to unblock the strait did not stop. >The allies began preparations for the mission without US participation. > As early as March 19, the countries held the first inaugural meeting of the mission in London and signed a joint declaration stating: > “We express our readiness to join relevant measures aimed at ensuring safe passage through the strait. We welcome the readiness of the countries participating in the preparatory measures.” > Canada, which had previously declined a similar request from the US, will join the expanded group. A summit is expected to follow to finalize the details, likely in Portsmouth. This is our best hope for peace and de-escalation.
Iran war shows why Europe is no longer relevant
Germany Drafts Plan to Hit US Companies in Next Trump Clash
How the US Became the Most Dangerous Country in the World | Common Dreams
How the US Became the Most Dangerous Country in the World | Common Dreams - Sopuli
> As for Iran, it has long since acquired for Americans the status of a myth rather than an actual nation and continues to occupy a twisted place in the national psyche. All 52 of the hostages taken in that country’s 1979 revolution were, in fact, released on President Ronald Reagan’s inauguration day in 1981. For him, that was a valuable piece of theater, supplied by the very people we were still calling terrorists. > By 1986, when the Iran-Contra scandal broke—the illegal trade of arms to Iran organized by senior officials in the Reagan administration in exchange for money to finance a US-backed insurgency in Nicaragua—it became hard to avoid the inference drawn by Gary Sick, the Persian Gulf adviser to President Jimmy Carter, that US and Iranian arms-for-money hustlers in both governments enjoyed mutual confidence because they had dealt with each other before. > As thoroughly forgotten as the Iran-Contra affair were the CIA’s overthrow of the democratic government of Iran in 1953 and American support for Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein during the Iraq-Iran war of 1980-1988, in which Iraq used chemical weapons against Iranian civilians. (The recent poisonous smoke from the Israeli bombing of civilian oil depots in Tehran may be evidence of a comparable war crime.) > What Americans so easily forget, the world sometimes remembers, and the perception of the United States today in Africa, Asia, and Latin America differs markedly from our perception of ourselves. Worse yet, we are led to misjudge our stature by the encouragement we receive from subordinate members of NATO, especially Great Britain, France, and Germany, descendants of defunct empires whose servility to Washington is now almost total. … > Washington’s determination to annihilate Iran, however, is nothing new. It has, in fact, been more constant and obsessive than most people realize. Back in 2007, a shipload of British sailors was captured in the territorial waters of Iran. > Negotiations between the two countries were already underway when then-Vice President Dick Cheney pushed to convert the incident into a cause for war. He had earlier registered his displeasure when that year’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iran gave no grounds for believing that country was close to having a nuclear weapon. > In short, there was no pretext for the war that would have lived up to the neoconservative motto, “Boys go to Baghdad, real men go to Tehran!” Still, courageous resistance from the head of CENTCOM, Admiral William J. Fallon, at that moment actually stopped the Bush-Cheney administration from getting into their third Middle Eastern war in five years. > There has been no one like Fallon within a country mile of the Trump administration. Buckle up 2026 is just getting started…
Iran war is a test the Gulf cannot afford to fail
Iran war is a test the Gulf cannot afford to fail - Sopuli
> The central problem posed by this conflict is not only the immediate security risk to GCC states caught in the crossfire. It is the strategic opportunity cost – the quiet, unquantifiable loss of a historic window to transform the region into a permanent hub of global infrastructure, finance and technology. … > What we are witnessing is not simply a breakdown of rules, but a fundamental debate about whether those rules still apply. Are we in an era of transformation, where great powers rewrite the terms of engagement? Or are we in an era of erosion, where the rules simply dissolve, leaving only the law of power? > For smaller nations – including the Gulf states, despite their wealth and influence – this ambiguity is a nightmare. In a world without rules, the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. … > There is a bitter irony in the position of the Gulf states. For decades, their security strategy rested on a simple calculus: alignment with the US. American bases, weapons and security guarantees would deter aggression and ensure stability. > Yet that very alignment has become a primary source of vulnerability. Iran has systematically targeted not only US facilities, but the infrastructure of GCC states. The message is unmistakable: if you host American power, you share American risk. And when the US decides to act – whether in defence of Israel or in pursuit of its own strategic interests – it does so without asking permission. The partners are expected to bear the costs. … > This brings us to the final and most urgent point: the window for the Gulf to cement its role as a global hub is open now. It may not stay open indefinitely.
Trump’s Hormuz Ultimatum: A Trap the US Can’t Escape
Trump’s Hormuz Ultimatum: A Trap the US Can’t Escape - Sopuli
> If Iran ignores the deadline, the first rung is predictable: US strikes on Iranian power plants. But the next steps are far less controllable. > Iran has declared any attack on its energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation against Gulf desalination plants — the lifeblood of drinking water for the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and parts of Saudi Arabia. Millions of civilians would be affected immediately, forcing Gulf governments to prioritize domestic stability over military alignment with Washington. > From there, the conflict could widen. > Iran might target LNG terminals, offshore platforms, or US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Each escalation would compel a US response, not because the targets are strategically decisive, but because failing to respond undermines the credibility the ultimatum is meant to project. > Every step up this ladder narrows options and raises risk. … > The ultimatum was meant to project strength, but it has instead boxed the US into a corner: strike and escalate, or back down and lose credibility.