A well-justified epistemological foundation is a key requirement for a #DelphiStudy:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1865921722000769
The team argues that #ReportingGuidelines encourage researchers to reflect on and disclose key assumptions and methodological choices in such studies.
Our project explores the future of interlinked computing: how connections, networks and grids between many independent, separately owned, systems, will work together. Based on nine interviews with expert futurists as the first step in a Delphi study, we offer these possible forecasts for comments. They are in the form of statements, both predictions, and concerns needing research now.
Delphi-Study findings for 2040:
1. Increased competition may compromise safe AI development.
2. Limited impact of quantum computing by 2040.
3. Ownership of public web assets, traded via tokenization.
4. Difficulty in distinguishing truth from fiction due to AI-generated content.
5. Challenges in distinguishing accidents from criminal incidents in decentralized systems. 📊 #DelphiStudy #AI #QuantumComputing
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10380243
Computer systems are increasingly interconnected, magnifying benefits and risks, especially with AI integration. Using a Delphi-based method, we interviewed technology futurists about potential trends towards 2040 and their societal impacts. Our findings highlight five key forecasts related to artificial intelligence and system complexity, and suggest six interventions to mitigate negative impacts.
Jan R. Boehnke
Harald Klinke