Well, my streak is over at 39 games. It ended a couple of days ago. My attempt at 40 ended with Yandy Díaz going 0-for-4 against the Nationals on August 30.

Díaz had two hard-hit balls, but none for hits.

I had a gut feeling that I shouldn’t go with Díaz. But I get that gut feeling all the time. If I followed that feeling, I wouldn’t ever make a pick. I wanted to get high-confidence picks in before the September call-ups. No regrets here. It was a good pick, IMHO.

It would have been nice to get to 40. But heck, it was nice getting to 29, 30, 35, and 39. There were moments where I thought I might actually win the $5.6 million. Heh.

I’ve been playing Beat the Streak for 21 years. This was the longest streak I ever got. The second-longest was 29 games in 2019 (right at the same time when my second daughter was born).

I got into great detail about every day of the streak in the comments on the 2025 Beat the Streak discussion post.

It was a lot of fun. Hard to believe that it started all the way back on May 29. I got to hang onto that streak for three solid months!

I was telling myself all along, every streak must end. It’s fun when a streak gets long.

Well, actually, it’s fun playing when the streak is short too. It’ll be nice in the coming weeks to make fun picks that I don’t fret over. I might revert back to my strategy at the beginning of the season… pick the absolute worst players when my streak is zero. So whenever my streak gets longer, I can point out and say Nick Allen and Willy Adames started my streak!

I use those two names, because they lead MLB for most games without a hit (as a starter).

Well. I know my picks for tomorrow!

And for next year, I’ll have a very robust system that will help me make my picks. I’m excited to continue to improve my R scripts that automatically pull all the stats and do the comparisons. Ultimately, I want to get the system where it makes a simple suggestion for me. Currently, I’m still scanning around various stats, because I haven’t fully integrated them into one simple score.

So something good comes out of this streak… my cool script. Getting higher and higher in the rankings really made me push to add more stats to utilize when making my selections.

Here’s a screenshot of my final place on the leaderboard.

And as of September 2, my place in the overall season is 30th. After all that, if feels like I was in the top 10. But really I’m buried down at 30. So be it. There were an INCREDIBLE amount of streaks above 30 this season. Not sure if it’s all the analytics available. Or if the favorite players simply did very well.

We still have a month to play, so there will be people who will push me down the list. But I don’t imagine that many people will be continuing to play at this point in the season. If your streak resets to zero, you have no chance at breaking 56 games. We are simply out of games at the end of the season.

The players I used in my 39-game streak:

My goodness. For 23% of my streak, I picked Ohtani, the BB machine.

https://www.57hits.com/my-39-game-streak-is-over

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

Bo Bichette got a hit, extending my streak in “Beat the Streak” to 36.

The Milestone Mindset

Every time my streak increases, it feels like a new milestone.

• 36 is just 20 away from 56
• 35 is halfway through 30
• 30 is 30
• 29 was my previous best streak (from 2019)
• 25 is 25
• 20 is 20

Each time, it’s like wooo. Take a deep breath and keep going. I can’t believe I’ve gotten this far. There have been numerous close calls where I change a pick, and my original pick doesn’t get a hit.

Now that I’ve been analyzing my picks more closely, I’ve found that there are players who were my secondary choice. So close to making that secondary choice my actual choice. And they don’t get a hit. So now I’m even more aware of just how close I come every day to not getting a hit.

From Casual to Calculated

At the beginning of my streak, I didn’t pay much attention to my picks. I’d make picks in advance, just clicking on two of MLB’s recommended options. And moving on. Every week or so, I’d check in and see how I was doing. And that was it.

Then I had two good weeks of random luck doing the quick picks, and I reached 11, so I focused on making good picks from that point. My goal was to reach 20. Once I reached 20, my goal was 29. Previously, that was my longest streak, from 2019, when my second daughter was born. I sat on 29 for weeks, not making a pick. I was too focused at home with my newborn daughter. Then I finally made a pick, and boom, my streak ended.

This year I made it past 29, getting to 30. On Reddit’s r/BeatTheStreak, each user can set their own “flair.” That’s a string of text that appears under your name. Everyone uses the format Current: X | Season: X | Best: X (X being the number). Therefore, for the longest time, my “Best” was 29. I was proud of that 29, but man. To reach 30 would be incredible.

When I reached 29, I thought, “watch, my streak will end at 29, and I won’t be able to update my ‘Best’.” But then I thought that it would be cool to have “Best: 29 ×2” in my flair. That would show that I got two 29 streaks. I wasn’t just lucky getting one long streak; I’ve had two in my BTS career.

Then I reached 30, and I was glad to go up to the next decade of numbers.

The Psychology of Streaking

Getting this far, I’ve readily been aware of how a streak can end at any moment. As I mentioned earlier, I made last-minute changes and considered secondary options. However, sometimes there is a feeling like, “wow, there must be something here. Maybe I’m doing something right where I can make the right picks.” I have been using a more advanced system of importing in data. So that feels cool. And since I reached 11, I’ve been making very conscious selections. Did I really make that 25 happen? I know logically, that’s not true. It’s luck. No matter which system you use. It still comes down to a 75% chance. But when you keep making the right selections, there is a feeling of ‘I dunno’… That you are doing something right.

Building the Perfect System

Even when my streak ends (notice I didn’t say “if my streak ends,” it will surely end), I have gained a good system with dynamically pulling stats from Fangraphs via R programming with the baseballr library. I’ve gained some basic knowledge of R—admittedly, mostly through ChatGPT and Gemini. However, it’s been beneficial to see how to utilize R to obtain the desired results and data.

I still envision myself making my system easier to read. A nice dashboard would be great. Currently, most of my final data is in one dataframe (aka spreadsheet) that feeds from multiple dataframes. But at the end of all the processing, it’s really just one grid I’m looking at. However, I often reference numerous other statistics that I want to incorporate.

The Ultimate Test

My ultimate goal is to develop a formula and then apply it to the last ten years of seasons. Day by day. As if it’s like a live season. Where, each day in testing, I only have data from the past. No cheating and looking at the end of the season to see who has the best GHP. Nope. Just using what’s up to that point in the season.

I would run that model through every game and see how it does. Modify the formula slightly and rerun the simulation. And again, and again. To see exactly which formula works the best.

Honestly, that’s what I’m most excited about. Playing the game is really exciting. It’s cool to see which picks work and which don’t. But to run it through ten years and see what happens… that’s like playing the game over ten years at high speed and seeing the results. Man, that would be so cool.

A Long History with the Game

And I’ve been playing this game since at least 2004. I know that year for certain, because that’s the first blog post where I talked about Beat the Streak. I might have played in 2002 or 2003. Or maybe even in the inaugural year in 2001. But I never blogged about it, so I don’t have a record.

Oh, and just mentioning this for fun. Back in the 2010s, like 2011, I would try to recruit my friends to play Beat the Streak. A couple of weeks before the MLB season would start, I would buy a bunch of Topps Opening Day packs. And mail a pack to each person. A letter was included with the pack, inviting that person to play Beat the Streak and join my group/league.

Topps doesn’t make that series anymore, which is sad, because it was a wonderful set of cards. The packs were just $1.00 or $1.25 each. How much did other regular packs cost at the time? Like $4 or $5? I loved getting a pack of cards for a buck. And how fun it is to mail a pack of cards to people as a bribe to get them to play. I mean really, you get a pack of cards in the mail asking you to play a game where you can win 5.7 million dollars. Who can turn that down‽

Community and Continuation

Nowadays, the only person I know who continues to play Beat the Streak is my twin brother. But through Reddit’s r/BeatTheStreak, I’ve gotten to know other people online who play. And that’s cool. People who share helpful advice. People who cheer you on when you are doing well. It’s pretty rad.

https://www.57hits.com/36-game-streak

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

I’m using H/PA instead of batting average. (Reddit user u/Deep_Slice875 made a good point about using H/PA when selecting player.)

Of course, my primary stat is GHP (games with hit percentage). But I often look at a player’s average in the past 7 days, 14 days, and 30 days. Average is a general picture, but it completely shuts out walks. In Beat the Streak, walks are essentially outs. We don’t really want players who walk a lot. The batting average doesn’t include walks.

H/PA gives us a better idea of how a player is performing for getting hits.

Players with a high H/PA, but a low GHP

Something really interesting happens when you combine GHP with H/PA. You end up seeing which players spread their hits out over games, versus players who bunch up multiple hits in individual games.

Of course, we want players who spread out their hits. We don’t want guys like Michael Busch or Javier Baez who get a bunch of hits per game.

Use this formula to find those players. GHP-(H/PA) The players with the lowest number will be the type who get multiple hits in a game.

The players who tend to get most of their hits from multi-hit games.

Players who spread their hits out

And on the other end of the spectrum, players who spread their hits out.

Ok, so how do you select players on a daily basis?

I’m adding together GHP and H/PA. So the formula is GHP+(H/PA)

Previously, I was looking only at players with a GHP of 70% and higher. That is currently 33 players.

With this new stat GHP+(H/PA), I’m looking for a 94% and higher. That’s currently 40 players. And yeah, Matt Olson is still on the list. Even though his H/PA is only 22.8%, his GHP is 74%. Giving him a total of 97% (ranked 6th)

https://www.57hits.com/new-stat-for-beat-the-streak

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

Are hitting streaks predictive? A deep dive into 7,500+ MLB streaks

As a Beat the Streak player, I’ve always wondered: once a player is on a hitting streak, are they actually more likely to keep it going? Or are we just falling for the gambler’s fallacy?

To find out, I analyzed 7,638 hitting streaks of 6 games or more from the 2014–2024 MLB seasons. The goal: identify whether certain streak lengths signal real momentum, and if some players handle streak pressure better than others.

Let’s break it down.

Key takeaways

• The 15-game mark shows a meaningful uptick in continuation rate across all player groups.
• Streak specialists are more consistent in continuing streaks past 13 games.
• Certain streak lengths—like 11 and 17—may represent “pressure points” with lower continuation rates.
• Momentum is real—but only for certain players.

Methodology in 3 Parts

1. All players (7,638 streaks)

First, I analyzed all 7,638 streaks without filtering for player quality. This gives us the broadest look at hitting streak behavior—no filters, just raw streak data.

Insight: The 15-game mark stands out with a noticeable jump to 75.1% continuation rate. This is the first point where we see a significant improvement over the baseline (which hovers around 65-68%).

I also highlight the 19-game mark in the graph, only because the next two graphs show an increase at 19 games.

However, with all players included, we’re mixing elite hitters with average ones. What happens when we focus on proven streak performers?

2. “Streak specialists” (29 players with 20+ game streaks)

This group includes players who’ve proven they can handle the pressure of a long streak. For this analysis, I identified 29 players who achieved at least one 20+ game hitting streak from 2014-2024. I then examined all 691 total streaks produced by these 29 “streak specialists”.

Insight: For elite streak performers, there’s a clear pattern: once these players reach a streak of 13+ games, their continuation rate jumps significantly (consistently 79%+). The 15-game mark shows a remarkable 90% continuation rate.

The trend is clear – these skilled streak hitters demonstrate considerably better performance once they’ve proven they can maintain a streak into the teens.

Here are the current players with a streak of 20+ under their belt

3. Consistent hitters (Top 30 GHP players each season)

Rather than cherry-pick long streaks, this final approach identifies consistent hitters using the “Games with a Hit Percentage” (GHP) metric, which measures how consistently a player gets at least one hit in games they play. I selected the top 30 players in GHP (minimum 90 games with a hit) from each season and analyzed their 1,789 total streaks.

Insight: These hitters show hot spots (10, 15, 19 games), but also puzzling drop-offs at 11 and 17 games.

What this means for Beat the Streak

If you’re picking hitters based on streaks, here’s what you should know:

• 15-game streaks are legit. Players reaching this point are more likely to keep it going—especially if they’re elite or consistently productive.
• Watch for dips at 11 and 17 games. These may be psychological hurdles, especially for non-elite hitters.
• Elite streak hitters (Approach #2) show the strongest patterns. If you can identify players who have previously demonstrated the ability to maintain long hitting streaks, they become excellent picks once they reach the teens (13+ games).
• Don’t overreact to small samples. Beyond 20 games, continuation rates get noisy. Stick with what’s supported by solid data.

Final word

Not all streaks are created equal. While the average MLB hitter has about a two-thirds chance of extending a short streak, the best hitters gain real momentum in the mid-teens. If you’re playing Beat the Streak or just enjoy the art of the streak, the 13–19 game range is where things start to get interesting.

At the end of the day, all my analysis showed me one thing: Players who previously had a long streak (“streak specialists”) are likely to do well when they have another long streak. Especially when their new streak is at the 15-game to 19-game mark.

Have your own theories? Noticed other patterns? Drop them in the comments—I’d love to hear your take.

Original data

1. Data for all players

2. Data for “streak specialists

3. Data for consistent hitters

3. Consistent hitters

The top 30 hitters in 2024, sorted by GHP (Games with a Hit Percentage)

https://www.57hits.com/hitting-streaks

#2 #BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

Please use this blog post to discuss how you are doing in MLB’s Beat the Streak this year.

I like being able to capture my thoughts on Beat the Streak during each season. Lately, those comments have been spread across Facebook, Reddit, and Bluesky. I’d like to have a place on my own site where I can record what happens throughout the year.

In past years, I would make a blog post dedicated for that season. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014: Updates would be made in the comments. It’s hard to believe I haven’t made a blog post for that since 2014. Probably because starting in 2011, I had an entire website (57hits.com) set up to talk about Beat the Streak. However, the discussions on 57hits.com would be separated across multiple blog posts.

I like the idea of having an annual discussion board. So this is the discussion board for the 2025 Beat the Streak season. I’ll continue to post on places like Reddit’s r/BeatTheStreak and the Facebook Group. But I’ll also add my personal comments to this post.

Ideas for what to talk about:

• What is your pick average?
• What’s your longest streak this year?
• Who stopped your streak?
• Excited about any players you are starting?

I welcome you to add any comments about your 2025 streaks on this post. Thank you.

If you aren’t signed up for Beat the Streak, you can play at mlb.com/apps/beat-the-streak/game

https://www.57hits.com/beat-the-streak-2025-chat

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

The MLB season is officially here, which means it’s time to play Beat the Streak! If you’re not familiar, the goal is simple: pick a player every day who you think will get a hit. If you can top Joe DiMaggio’s legendary 56-game streak, you win a cool $5.6 million.

Sounds easy, right? Well, no one has ever done it in the 23-year history of this game. But that doesn’t stop the fun of trying!

My Strategy: The Worst Possible Picks

When my Beat the Streak record resets to zero, I’m starting with an experiment—picking players you wouldn’t typically expect to get a hit. It adds some fun to the start of a streak, and if they do come through, it makes for a great story when my streak eventually takes off.

My strategy? Pick the guys who had the most hitless games last season. If they manage to get a hit, I’ll start taking my picks more seriously. But if they don’t? Well, my streak was at zero anyway, so no harm done.

The “Most Hitless Games” All-Stars

Using Stathead, I pulled up last season’s leaders in hitless games. Here’s the top of the list:

Leading the pack is Orlando Arcia of the Braves, with 66 games without a hit. Right behind him is Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks, with 64 hitless outings. So naturally, I’m rolling with these two to start my streak.

My Picks for March 28

Orlando Arcia (ATL) – Facing Dylan Cease (SD)

• Hit probability: 55%
• 2024 batting line vs Cease: .250 (1-for-4)

Eugenio Suárez (ARI) – Facing Jameson Taillon (CHC)

• Hit probability: 66%
• 2024 batting line vs Taillon: .333 (1-for-3)

Will these two surprise me with a hit? Or will my streak stay at zero? Either way, it’s a fun way to shake things up before getting serious.

Would you ever start your streak with a couple of long-shot picks like this? My brother reminded me of this technique this year when he picked two Chicago Cubs, Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson. Not really long shots, but it’s fun to start a streak with two Cubs.

If you haven’t started playing Beat the Streak yet, now’s the perfect time. And if you hit 57? That $5.6 million jackpot is yours.

Are you playing this season?

Who’s your first pick? Let me know in the comments!

https://www.57hits.com/start-your-streak-with-the-worst-picks

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

Christopher Morel is no longer MLB’s leader of hitless games this season (as a starter). Zack Gelof of the A’s is now on top (as of September 4, 2024).

Who is Zach Gelof?

When Zach Gelof burst out as a rookie last year, Topps Now produced four cards of him:

Four Topps Now cards sounds impressive. He did have a great beginning run. However, 79 players had 4+ Topps Now cards in 2023.

Of those 79 players, his print run average per card is pretty average. He comes in 48th of 79.

We’ll see by the end of the season if Zach Gelof finishes as the 2024 hitless leader.

Update September 10, 2024

Orlando Arcia is now the hitless leader with 59 games.

https://www.57hits.com/2024-hitless-games-leader-zach-gelof

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips #ZackGelof

I scraped the current leaderboards three weeks ago, and today, I scraped them again. After crunching the numbers, here’s what I found.

10+ game streaks

23% of the players with an active streak of 10+ games haven’t made a pick in at least three weeks.

• 848 haven’t made a pick in three weeks.
• 3,677 players have an active streak of 10+ games.

15+ game streaks

964 have a 15+ streak
84 haven’t made a pick in three weeks
(that’s 9%)

20+ game streaks

175 have a 20+ streak
7 haven’t made a pick in three weeks
(that’s 4%)

The players with the longest streaks that haven’t picked in at least three weeks:

• Thomas – 28
• BigLou – 26
• mattingly23 – 24
• PassTheBrad – 23
• brenda – 23
• slacklinesteve – 23
• BeatPick – 23

Why do these streaks get abandoned?

I’m curious to know why streaks get abandoned. I would have to track this stat throughout the year to see how the numbers adjust according to the time of the year. (This analysis involved comparing the list from three weeks ago to the active list from today.)

I would imagine that some people just get burnt out playing. Some might have other things going on, like kids going to school. In 2019, I had a streak of 29. Then my second child was born. I didn’t make any picks for weeks. When I finally made a pick, the streak ended. Heh.

It could also be a fan’s loss of interest in the baseball season if their team is not performing well.

https://www.57hits.com/dormant-streaks-in-beat-the-streak

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips

I’m trying to find the years for each of the longest streaks in Beat the Streak. If you have any information on the missing years and streak breakers, please let me know in the comments.

News coverage of the top streaks 2001-2025

2001-2005

2011

2013

2014

2015

2017

2019

2021

2022

2023

2024

JoyceG in 2024

JoyceG has the longest streak in 2024 with 49 games. Built mostly from picking one player a day. Often skipping days. People online were analyzing her careful picks.

Then there is Hangman6049, who makes two picks a day. When JoyceG reached 49, he zoomed to 45. Since JoyceG makes such slow picks, people were thinking that Hangman6049 might get to 57 before JoyceG does.

Imagine being JoyceG making careful picks. Only picking a player when the situations are all good. You hit 57 games, but someone else got to 57 before you, because that person made two quick picks a day.

JoyceG’s streak is the 4th longest streak ever. She is the 5th player all-time to reach 49 games.

She has used 17 players in the 49-game streak:

Her 20 last picks used ten different players

2025

https://www.57hits.com/all-time-longest-streaks-in-beat-the-streak

#BeatTheStreakStrategyAndTips