
A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 04 November 2024
The Finish Line. Here we are at Election Day. It’s been a long road. At some point along the way I thought I’d be doing one of these every night as the election got close. Unfortunately…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 30 September 2024
Catching up. Having a day job can be a drag, I promised myself that I would keep up with these but, as usually happens that intention was trampled by the sheer amount of work generated by the colle…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 22 September 2024
Consolidations and a bit of a Debate Bump Let’s get right to it. This is the first time since 14 August that one of the candidates had led in a victorious number of electoral votes. The State…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 14 September 2024
Drifting Towards Harris This is my first update on my new schedule. I downloaded the data from ElectoralVote.com yesterday, the 14th, at around noon and I’m processing it today on Sunday. With luck…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 04 September 2024
Stubbornly Stable. Yeah, it’s taken me a while to get this one out, again. Sorry. It’s been tricky settling back into the academic year. Starting this week I will download polling data …

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 28 August 2024
No DNC Bump & Dancing Inside the Margins Quicker than usual; I have to be ready to Teach on Monday. There are actually two sets of results here. I’ll explain. Results for 28 August 2024: …

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 21 August 2024
This is what the stock market calls a “correction.” Harris Still Favored I’m watching night 3 of the Democratic National Convention and Oprah just exited the stage. It was electri…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 14 August 2024
Harris’s Momentum Continues Let’s GO! The State of the Race The campaign seems to have slowed down somewhat while the Democrats gear up for their convention. Vice President Harris and P…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 8 August 2024
Harris Takes Lead Hello again! The State of the Race Since our last update, the Democratic Ticket has been campaigning across the country working to extend their momentum from the past two weeks. T…

A Probabilistic Look at The Presidential Election: 31 July 2024
Harris Has the Momentum Hello! Thanks for joining me! I’ve been publishing election projections for a few years now and I’ve been meaning to start publishing projections for 2024. With …