Tropical Storm Melissa’s forecast has undergone mostly cosmetic changes this morning. A damaging, severe hurricane with wide-ranging impacts in Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is likely. We continue to be focused on heavy rainfall and multiple days of hurricane impacts in very vulnerable locations.

https://theeyewall.com/melissas-forecast-remains-mostly-unchanged-and-ominous-for-haiti-jamaica-and-parts-of-cuba/

#tsmelissa

A whole heck of a lot to cover today on the coastal storm this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic. Impacts in NJ and Delaware could be the worst since January 2016 or Hurricane Sandy south of Long Beach Island.

https://theeyewall.com/worst-impacts-since-january-2016-or-sandy-possible-for-southern-new-jersey-delaware-from-east-coast-storm-sunday-monday/

Two major U.S. weather events will unfold in the coming days: A coastal storm in the East will whip up wind, surf, and rain from North Carolina to southern New England with major to possibly severe impacts expected. In the Southwest, heavy rainfall with tropical moisture will lead to significant flash flooding concerns, particularly Friday and Saturday in Arizona, Utah, and Colorado, and neighboring areas.

Details:
https://theeyewall.com/major-coastal-storm-to-impact-parts-of-the-east-coast-while-a-significant-flash-flooding-risk-emerges-in-the-southwest/

#weather

Tropical Storm Jerry has formed and while it isn’t expected to hit land, it may make a close pass to the northeast Caribbean later this week. A coastal storm is becoming more likely off the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic which will likely cause significant marine issues and potentially heavy rain. And the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla in the Pacific will deliver copious moisture to the Southwest.

Details:
https://theeyewall.com/8458-2/

#TSJerry

The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic continues to slowly consolidate. Development odds remain elevated over the next week, but there’s a pretty significant difference between most ensemble guidance and operational guidance versus yesterday that raises some questions. Worth continuing to monitor in the islands.

https://theeyewall.com/atlantic-tropical-wave-continues-to-be-worth-watching-for-the-islands-as-it-slowly-tries-to-get-together/

#weather

Erin is chugging out to sea now, but not before possibly delivering an enhancement to already extreme wildfire risk in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Invest 90L remains worth monitoring for Bermuda. Invest 99L is worth watching for the Windward Islands. And flooding chances mix with beneficial rainfall heading into next week in the southern Rockies and Plains.

https://theeyewall.com/erin-begins-to-exit-stage-right-but-not-before-prompting-a-few-more-concerns-in-atlantic-canada/

#weather

Hurricane Erin is fighting off dry air and shear this morning, which has caused it to lose intensity but maintain a large size. Forecast impacts to the U.S. East Coast are virtually unchanged today. Two tropical features in the Atlantic behind Erin are worth keeping tabs on, but none looks to be a serious land threat at this time.

https://theeyewall.com/erin-on-track-to-impact-the-u-s-east-coast-with-waves-and-erosion-while-we-size-up-the-disturbances-behind-it-in-the-atlantic/

#weather #hurricaneerin

Erin is weaker but larger today. As the wind field continues to expand and Erin reintensifies, look for significant impacts on the East Coast from rip currents and rough surf. Also: what have the social media purveyors of "fear porn" moved on to now?

https://theeyewall.com/hurricane-erin-growing-in-size-likely-to-cause-dangerous-rip-currents-and-rough-surf-on-the-east-coast/

#weather #hurricaneerin