Omar Wasow

@owasow
3.5K Followers
2.1K Following
767 Posts
Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race:
1/ Agenda Seeding j.mp/agenda-seeding
2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks j.mp/bundle-of
Site:http://omarwasow.com
Alcohol “often drives profits for restaurants” so declines are bad for business but fact that “Americans are consuming less alcohol than in the past, partly in response to shifting perceptions of its health impacts” is good for broader well-being. Gift link: https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/wine/article/red-wine-restaurants-19930284.php?utm_source=marketing&utm_medium=copy-url-link&utm_campaign=article-share&hash=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2ZjaHJvbmljbGUuY29tL2Zvb2Qvd2luZS9hcnRpY2xlL3JlZC13aW5lLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTE5OTMwMjg0LnBocA%3D%3D&time=MTczNTQ0NzMyMjIwNw%3D%3D&rid=MWM2Y2M0YTAtZWQ5Ni00YzgxLTgwNmUtNTc2ZmI0Y2NhN2Zl&sharecount=Mg%3D%3D
“Two new analyses evaluating the most potent messages that could benefit Ms. Harris find that the ‘weird’ line of attack isn’t nearly as helpful as defining Ms. Harris in a positive light.” Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/opinion/harris-trump-biden-polls.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ck4.SK3B.1gSHD6RO6JWw&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
Opinion | What the Polls Say About Harris Erasing Trump’s Lead on the Economy

On a key issue, voters’ attitudes may be shifting.

The New York Times
“In 1946, amid persistent racial divisions, popular radio series The Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination and exposing the KKK’s bigotry. We find lasting impacts…” https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4883857
“Across demographic groups, Harris outperforms Biden. In the plot, Dots shown to the left on a given line indicate candidate who fares better against Trump. Notice solid circles—those indicating Harris’s margins against Trump—sit consistently to the left.” Gift link: http://wapo.st/4cpPriQ
Analysis | A new poll counters some of the narrative after the Biden-Trump debate

As always, though, we should be cautious about reading too much into one poll.

Washington Post
On question of “will it matter?” am reminded of study that used day-level data from millions of Twitter bios and found ”Capitol insurrection caused large-scale de-identification with Republican Party and Trump with no indication of re-identification in weeks following insurrection.” https://osf.io/dvgj3/
Do Violent Protests Affect Expressions of Party Identity? Evidence from the Capitol Insurrection

Hosted on the Open Science Framework

OSF
“Why are democratic publics reluctant to use force against fellow democracies?…Our results suggest that the democratic peace in public opinion is, largely, an ethnocentric and racialized peace.” https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/0BEEE1D2EC35BFD9EE6A8BA8E344643A/S0003055424000509a.pdf/separate_but_unequal_ethnocentrism_and_racialization_explain_the_democratic_peace_in_public_opinion.pdf
New study: “We examine how gender shapes 25,000 everyday interactions between strangers. We manipulate gender, class, and ethnicity of research assistants [who prompt] pedestrians...to provide directions, help with dropped groceries, or lend cell phone to RA.” https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59a360bacd0f681b1cb27caa/t/65fedd90de47053304ef31a2/1711201688003/gender_trust_gap_maintext_11March2024.pdf
New working paper looks at “right-wing riots in late 19th century France” and finds “riots caused an increase of about 5% in the vote share in the 1898 elections of extreme right candidates at the expense of centre right candidates.” https://files.osf.io/v1/resources/ueh75/providers/osfstorage/65cf837eb74cac035883777f?action=download&direct&version=1
Survey experiment on BLM finds, “Overall, both Blacks and whites react negatively to more disruptive protests but whites tend to react more negatively than Blacks.” https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-race-ethnicity-and-politics/article/by-any-means-necessary-how-black-and-white-americans-evaluate-protest-tactics-in-response-to-a-police-killing/C27ED94315FEC234BFD82F4CB4A6FB4B
By Any Means Necessary? How Black and White Americans Evaluate Protest Tactics in Response to a Police Killing | Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics | Cambridge Core

By Any Means Necessary? How Black and White Americans Evaluate Protest Tactics in Response to a Police Killing

Cambridge Core
Biden praises Black churches and says the world would be a different place without their example

President Joe Biden on Sunday extolled the existence of Black churches, saying the world would be a different place if they were not around to show people...

Yahoo News