Will a large earthquake be followed by an even larger event? A 2025 paper proposed a new method for classifying foreshocks in advance, with an apparent success rate above 90%.

But does it work?

Our deep-dive analysis found serious problems that we believe invalidate the result. Read more:

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/can-we-tell-if-an-earthquake-is-going

RE: https://mastodon.social/@judithgeology/115766560096330779

This swarm in San Ramon revived yesterday, with a new burst of earthquakes that included a M4.2. We wrote an update, and removed the paywall from our previous post to allow broader access.

If you read our posts, please consider supporting our work by becoming a paid subscriber.

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/san-ramon-swarm-sputters-back-to

A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling western Mindanao, the second-largest island in the Philippines. Some areas have been preemptively evacuated. The fault system here has a record of large, damaging, tsunamigenic earthquakes, and this swarm represents unusual behavior. So, what’s going on, and what can we say about hazard?

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/pulsed-swarm-of-seismicity-offshore

A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling western Mindanao, the second-largest island in the Philippines. Some areas have been preemptively evacuated. The fault system here has a record of large, damaging, tsunamigenic earthquakes, and this swarm represents unusual behavior. So, what’s going on, and what can we say about hazard?

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/pulsed-swarm-of-seismicity-offshore

A M4.1 earthquake rattled Toronto last night. Many residents of the city, who just experienced record snowfall, thought (hopefully?) that the shaking might be the rumbling of a snow plow. No such luck. This was the largest earthquake to hit the region in 20 years. Why do earthquakes occur here, so far from a tectonic plate boundary?

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m41-earthquake-shakes-toronto

A magnitude 4.7 earthquake rattled Salt Lake City on Thursday. Although large earthquakes are (eventually) expected on the nearby Wasatch Fault, this event occurred to the east, near the intriguing Bear River Fault Zone. Was it responsible? We take a look.

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m47-earthquake-in-utah-rattles-salt

Did you feel the M4.9 earthquake that struck southern California two days ago? How about its largest aftershock (M4.3)? The earthquake occurred below Joshua Tree National Park, on an unmapped fault northeast of the San Andreas. Read more:

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m49-earthquake-strikes-inside-joshua

A M5.6 earthquake in northern Pakistan caused several buildings to collapse yesterday. How does this strike-slip event fit into the menagerie of Tibetan Plateau earthquakes?

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m56-earthquake-collapses-buildings

A M5.7 earthquake in western Japan caused minor damage yesterday, preceded by very small foreshocks in the week prior. Why did it occur here, so far from the subduction zone? What do we know about the faults in this part of Japan? And is any of this related to the nearby volcanoes?

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m57-earthquake-in-western-japan-causes

A M6.5 earthquake struck near Acapulco, Mexico today, triggering warning systems and causing tall buildings in Mexico City to sway. How does this event fit into the larger tectonic picture - and what kinds of earthquakes might we expect here?

https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m65-subduction-earthquake-strikes