Jeff Gilchrist

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PhD biomedical researcher, data scientist, and finder of large prime numbers. Views are my own. Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeffgilchrist
Webhttp://covid.gilchrist.ca
Twitterhttps://twitter.com/jeffgilchrist
BlueSkyhttps://bsky.app/profile/jeffgilchrist.bsky.social

How different is LP.8.1 compared to the current XFG.5 variant circulating in Ontario?

You can see from the Venn diagram that LP.8.1 has 4 different amino acid mutations that aren't in the XFG.5 or JN.1 spike protein, and XFG.5 has 6 amino acid mutations not present in the other two ( https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=JN.1&nextcladePangoLineage1=LP.8.1&nextcladePangoLineage2=XFG.5&analysisMode=CompareEquals& ). LP.8.1 and XFG.5 have 5 amino acid mutations that are common between them in the spike protein so would be present in the fall 2025 LP.8.1 mRNA & Novavax Japan vaccine formulas. 3/

LP.8.1 is what this fall's Japan Novavax vaccine and the mRNA vaccines are designed for which is now almost gone and typical of how these things work with vaccine manufacturing timing while Novavax is providing the previous year's JN.1 vaccine formula for the USA again.

LP.8.1 is a descendant of JN.1 from several years ago which became KP.1 before it became LP.8 as seen in the Sankey diagram. Last year's mRNA vaccines were based on KP.2 which was a different branch of variants. 2/

*** Ontario Variant Update (to: Aug. 16, 2025) ***

Ontario COVID sequence updates have been more frequent over the past month with the XFG.* "Stratus" family of variants now at 74% of sequences, NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" at 22% and LP.8.1.* down to 3%.

Looking at specific variants as of mid August, XFG.5.1 is most prevalent at 13%, NB.1.8.1 in second at 10%, XFG.2 in third at 8.6% and XFG.3 in fourth at 7.4%. 🧵 1/

#Variants #COVID #XFG #Stratus

The US EPA Air Quality Index (AQI) has category breakpoints up to PM2.5 225.5 ug/m^3 which provide "Very Unhealthy" and "Hazardous" categories above what the Canadian AQHI display. These at least warn that risk of effects is increased for everyone and the Hazardous level is a Health warning of emergency conditions. The AQI numbers continue to increase as well so you can tell just how much higher the pollution levels are. 17/

The AQHI even at the highest index of 10 still only recommends to the general population "Consider reducing or rescheduling strenuous activities outdoors if you experience symptoms such as coughing and throat irritation.".

The Very High level of "+" above 10 is, "Reduce or reschedule strenuous activities outdoors, especially if you experience symptoms such as coughing and throat irritation." 15/

In the summer of 2023, PM2.5 levels reached 511 ug/m^3 in Ottawa but that is also displayed as "+" despite it being equivalent to smoking 7.7 cigarettes after 8 hours of exposure compared to 1.5 cigarettes after 8 hours when the AQHI first bumps up to the "+" level. 14/
Smoking 1 cigarette is the equivalent of 8 hours of exposure at the top of AQHI level 6 (PM2.5 60 ug/m^3) where they recommend "No need to modify your usual outdoor activities unless you experience symptoms such as coughing and throat irritation." for the general public. 12/
Even if you can't see or smell the smoke outside, check your local particulate matter levels (PM2.5) using a tool like this one that combines multiple sensors in many cities to see what the levels are currently ( https://aqmap.ca/ ). 10/
The PM2.5 levels from smoke have dropped significantly from previous days to 25.96 ug/m^3 which the AQHI maps to an index of 3. These PM readings were done on a Canadian made Model X air quality monitor from @VisiblAIr ( https://visiblair.com/ ). 8/
The web version of this article with nice table of contents and easy to share with others can be found here ( https://tinyurl.com/AQHIwildfire ) and ( https://docs.google.com/document/d/1s99C1lTgKyNoYKAnP3fE4E1vx8T-6Vd2a-Ea1JMRlH4/edit?usp=sharing ). 2/