Would you like another prediction?
Generative AI as we know it is a bubble.
It’s unsustainable.
Relying on it now will result in very expensive work to undo that damage in years to come. And we’re going to live with the accuracy debt for decades.
We are going to have an enormous skills and critical thinking shortage in the very near future, once the layoffs have slowed, and organisations start to cave in under the weight of their own shortsightedness.
Consultancy demand will go through the roof for people who actually know what they’re doing, attracting large salaries, and many won’t be able to afford this, dooming them further. There will be some bittersweet justice in those being laid off picking up the big money.
Vendors will transition to alternative technologies while trying to convince us that the technology is improving and AGI is just around the corner. They’re selling you something they haven’t figured out yet, and you won’t be able to afford (or will likely be dead) when it does actually arrive.
Alternative technologies will continue to be researched, and progress will be made. But they’re not the same thing, don’t let them fool you.
Today's a good day to remind folks that the RSAC board platformed someone who wound up shackling a U.S. Senator b/c she's evil, clueless, & immoral.
RSAC and *all* who defended their decision should feel real shame and know they're — in part — responsible for the ICE carnage happening across America.
DOGE goon fired after admitting that he was surprised to find that "government works" and is "not as inefficient as I was expecting."
https://www.fastcompany.com/91330297/doge-sahil-lavignia-gumroad
My kid just WhatsApped from his German exchange trip. They had to call an ambulance for him.
He has food poisoning, was very pale and nauseous. He was dehydrated and his blood pressure was dropping.
He's fine now but I wanted to share this because it has the most Western Europe Is a Civilized Place ending ever.
The paramedics came to the mall, took him into the ambulance, gave him an IV, checked him out, stayed with him until he felt better, then told him "No charge. Enjoy your trip to Germany." And if that wasn't enough, when they realized the group had had to move onto the train station without him, they gave him a ride over there to catch up with them.
I'm so ground down by the predatory realities of America in general in 2025 that this just about blew my fucking mind.
1/ An unfortunate management student put a quarter in me in my DMs so I might as well put it in public:
Why Lean Software Dev is Wrong.
I think a big misunderstanding has been to think of software development as manufacturing. That also goes to my gripe with how Lean was translated to software development, which I think made this same mistake. I would need a whole thing on that as well (I'm assuming you read my thing on Team Topologies, which was basically to say that it was wrong in way too many words). So before buying into Lean Software dev and Kanban, I would actually go back and read for example Toyota Way, which I found super interesting when I read it (it's been a few years).
Mapping Lean to other disciplines starts with trying to figure out "what is the factory?" and "who are the workers in the factory?" And this is where it's very easy to miss and Lean software dev missed completely imo.
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