Day 16. Gate technically open (4/8) but the IRGC has overridden the political leadership's diplomatic track—the counterparty exists on paper, not in practice. Hormuz selectively closed: Western ships blocked, China flowing freely. Coalition SPLIT means the financial brake is muffled—upstream is buffering internal pressure. China at POSITIONING means the rival extractor is accumulating access daily. Both sides publicly rejected negotiations Sunday. No mechanism is pointed at resolution. #Iran

#Iran mined Hormuz not to start a war — to run the playbook back at us. Demonstrate capacity to harm, then sell the removal as a concession. Tehran read the EX HEG manual. This is counter-extortion from a target that refused to be acquired. #IranWar