Daniel Donner

@donnermaps
207 Followers
113 Following
77 Posts
Daily Kos Elections. Focusing on data, maps, and demographics. Also @donnermaps bluesky, where I'm mainly hanging out these days.
Our elections datadailykosdata.com
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Show threadDaniel DonnerNov 2, 2023
Third and final post: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/2/2198186/-Dobbs-changed-everything-in-2022-yet-the-political-environment-remained-the-same-How-can-that-be
Dobbs changed everything in 2022, yet the political environment remained the same. How can that be?

In the 2022 midterms, special elections were one of the klaxons alerting us to a changed political environment following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June. As a result of the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health...

Daily Kos
Show threadDaniel DonnerNov 1, 2023
Part 2 in the series on special elections: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/1/2193713/-Democrats-are-crushing-it-in-special-elections-this-year-That-s-unambiguously-good-news
Democrats are crushing it in special elections this year. That's unambiguously good news

In August, Tennessee state Rep. Justin Jones won back his seat in the legislature after getting expelled by the Republican majority for protesting gun violence. His margin of victory was an overwhelming 56 percentage points, in a district Joe Biden had...

Daily Kos
Daniel DonnerOct 31, 2023

This week we're releasing updated analysis of special elections at Daily Kos Elections. Today, the correlations between specials and the House popular vote are still good, six years after we first described the relationship. Detailed threads at Bluesky and Threads.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/31/2194553/-Special-elections-are-closely-correlated-with-the-House-popular-vote-Still-true-six-years-later

Special elections are closely correlated with the House popular vote: Still true, six years later

In the dark hours of December 2016, we noticed something out of the ordinary. In one of the first elections following the previous month’s political apocalypse, a Democrat running for state Senate ...

Daily Kos
Show threadDaniel DonnerFeb 24, 2023
The share claiming Eastern European heritage is quite large in many congressional districts. #ukraine
Daniel DonnerFeb 24, 2023

Ukrainians and Eastern Europeans and their descenents make up a substantial portion of many congressional districts in the Midwest & Northeast, held by both Republicans and Democrats. Cutting off aid to Ukraine might not be the best political move for the GOP.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/24/2154012/-Slava-Ukraina-A-Republican-vote-to-defund-Ukraine-would-come-at-their-own-peril

Show threadDaniel DonnerFeb 15, 2023
The right-hand panel combines both measures and plots seat margin vs popular vote. The bottom left quadrant shows that one time the GOP won the Senate and the popular vote. Upper right, Dems won both. Here, the point of coloring the data by year becomes apparent. 4/4
Show threadDaniel DonnerFeb 15, 2023
The bottom left panel shows who won the popular vote. Republicans have pulled that off just once, in 1998. Democrats won it every other time. 3/
Show threadDaniel DonnerFeb 15, 2023
In the top left, a simple plot showing who controlled the Senate: Dems (above the horizontal line) or GOP (below). The data are colored to show the progression of time from light (1994) to dark (2022). 2/
Daniel DonnerFeb 15, 2023

Recently, the GOP has *lost* the popular vote 8 out of 9 times it has controlled the Senate. (right panel, bottom right quadrant). New post from my colleague @[email protected] exploration of the figure follows… 1/

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/15/2148835/-Republicans-have-won-the-Senate-half-the-time-since-2000-despite-winning-fewer-votes-than-Democrats

Daniel DonnerFeb 13, 2023
Show threadPhilip BumpFeb 13, 2023

Here’s what’s happened since 1976. Democrats who won by more got more liberal; those in close races didn’t.

But Republicans got way more conservative regardless of district.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/republicans-democrats-ideology-conservative/?itid=ap_philipbump

Safe-district Democrats got more liberal. All Republicans got more conservative.

Over the past 50 years, House Republicans moved right regardless of how safe their seat.

The Washington Post