Wall Street sell-side analysts are now unmoored from reality. Next four-year S&P500 nominal earnings growth totalling exp(0.23 x 4) - 1 = 150%? The technical term is “nuts”:

Earnings Sentiment; or, This Is Nuts!! When's the Crash?!: CHART OF THE DAY**
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/earnings-sentiment-or-this-is-nuts>
2026-06-11

The subhead: When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs? The minimum wage job-loss apocalypse that never arrived. At work here we see monopsony, not mayhem. Assessing Card, Krueger, Dube, and the end of the textbook minimum wage story:

**CROSSPOST: ARINDRAJIT DUBE: A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade**
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/crosspost-arindrajit-dube-a-minimum>
2026-06-11

A labor market in rough balance is a strange place to look for an AI-driven jobs collapse. The full-time typist has disappeared, but very few jobs are like that—fully automatable by “AI”:

**The AI Jobs Apocalypse Is Not in the Data: CHART OF THE DAY**
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/the-ai-jobs-apocalypse-is-not-in>
2026-06-10

Monetary policy risk returns as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins cosplaying Arthur Burns in the 1970s. Inflation is back. The oil shocks are too. The lying never left. The price level jumps, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wobbles, Trump and the Trumpists cry “Cut interest rates!”, and Kevin Warsh has promised them that he would:

**So Far Inflation's Return Limited to Energy. So Far: CHART OF THE DAY**
<https://braddelong.substack.com/p/so-far-inflations-return-limited>
2026-06-10

The Age of Harness Engineering: taming the stochastic parrots before they eat your sead-corn codebase. We’ve scaled the models and blown out the context windows—and discovered that reliability lives somewhere else entirely. Context and prompt tricks got us very impressive demos, but were clearly not enough; now we say “this time! for sure!” and bet on the new frontier of “harness engineering” to turn a stochastic parrot into a halfway dependable co‑worker:

**My Notes on the Progression ... 1/